After the events of the last week it seemed inevitable that there would be a market on Le Royaume-Uni withdrawing from the European Convention on Human Rights and Smarkets have obliged. Sagacious observers like David Herdson have noted the Tory Party’s response to the recent ruling by the ECHR shows the Tory party have gone quite mad. The terms of this bet are perspicuous which makes backing No in this market obvious. Based on the precedent set by R (Miller)…
Ever since it is appeared likely Boris Johnson would face a leadership contest there have been rumours that to reassert his authority Boris Johnson may hold a snap election. I have dismissed such talk as more full of bollocks than a jockstrap because I don’t think the Tory party is in a financial position to fund a general election, the chance of Boris Johnson losing his seat isn’t negligible, and the state and direction of the economy would stop an…
I like this betting market because it is pretty straightforward and simply asks who will be Prime Minister on New Year’s Day 2023. As can be seen Johnson has made quite a recovery since earlier in the year when his position looked more doubtful. These are the market rules: This market relates to the person who occupies the role of UK Prime Minister at 12:00 GMT on 1 January 2023. Temporary or caretaker occupants will not count e.g. if someone…
This is the final weekend before next Thursday’s by-elections when the Tories will be defending Wakefield and Tiverton & Honiton in Devon. If these go the way of the betting then both seats will be lost thus reducing the CON seat total by 2 and increasing the non-CON total also by two. It is a very rare for a party to lose two by-elections on the same day but this has come about by the excellent practice of the Johnson…
We are now in the final phase of the Tiverton & Honiton by-election which makes place next Thursday. This was caused by the resignation of the incumbent MP after he had been observed viewing porn on his phone in the Commons Chamber. On the face of it this looks like a sure-fire hold for the Tories which came in 45.4% above the third place LDs at GE2019. But right from the point the betting markets were opened Davey’s party has…
A couple of weeks ago a senior Tory messaged me from Westminster suggesting that the Chancellor, Rishi Sunak, was over the worst and could be on the way back. So this latest polling comes as no real surprise. His negatives like the non-Dom status now seem minimal compared with those of the incumbent. Johnson’s position at the moment has been helped by the lack of any real alternative. The former HealthSec and 2019 leadership finalist, Hunt, made what appeared to…
Normally questions like the above about a leading politician produce a fairly sharpish split between those who support the party of the person being assessed and those who don’t. That’s why this latest polling on Johnson by YouGov should be so worrying for those concerned about future election success for the party. That 49% of CON voters hold the view that he generally behaves unethically is not good and will be noted by the growing number of Tories who are…
But we are close to crossover With everything else that is happening we have barely looked at the next general election betting and the latest position is in the chart above. The Tories are now down to a 51.55% chance for most seats with LAB not far behind. From past and costly experience I’ve learned that long range general election bets should be best avoided except if they offer incredible value. Why tie up your money for nearly two years…