The overnight news about the former Deputy Chief Whip, Christopher Pincher, is the latest story related to a Tory MP that has got people like me to be rushing to Wikipedia to find out what happened in his seat at GE2019. For the record, Pincher gained Tamworth from LAB at GE2010 and has increased his majority there at every election he has fought. At GE2019 he chalked up 66.3% of the vote and was 42.6% ahead of second place Labour….
Ipsos has a reputation for developing the most interesting questions on which to poll and this late survey is no exception. Six years after the referendum has BREXIT made life better or worse? As can be seen the proportion of who think the UK’s exit from the EU has made their daily life worse has risen from three in ten in June 2021 to 45% now. Seven in ten of those who voted Remain feel this is the case, up…
Whenever new polls come out we tend to look for just one figure and that is the Labour lead over the Conservatives.I would suggest that we are being too simplistic. The experience of the by-elections last week suggests that the next general election is going to see quite a bit more tactical voting against the Conservatives. Let us recall that Labour which had come second at the general election in the Tiverton and Honiton seat was reduced to losing its…
This polling from Opinium is really quite remarkable because it is very rare for there to be public backing of industrial action that is going to make the daily lives of many people even harder. It suggests as well that the reliance of Johnson on his team on there being public backing for their approach is based on wrong assumptions. If there is other polling showing a similar picture then ministers have a problem.
All the possible years are coming together One of the liveliest political betting markets over the last few months has been on which year Johnson will finally cease to be Prime Minister. As can be seen things have moved sharply and there is is at the moment no real consensus about when he is going to go. He has made statements to the effect that he will not go of his own accord which means that he has to be…
The above polling table from Fivethirtyeight features the most recent generic voting intentions for the November midterm elections in the US and gives an initial indication of how the Supreme Court’s decision of Rowe v Wade is impacting on voters. Quite simply before last week’s announcement, the Republicans had been enjoying a reasonable lead. The most recent polls now have the Democrats ahead. This is early days and we need to see much more polling but the first Tuesday in…
With the Telegraph reporting that three CON MPs are in active discussion about crossing the floor to join LAB the above bet from Smarkets looks might be value. According to the paper: Labour sources told The Telegraph that the three male Conservatives, first elected in 2019, have entered formal discussions about crossing the floor to join Sir Keir Starmer’s party. Those familiar with discussions said the MPs had slim majorities in Red Wall areas in the North that have historically…
There has been a big move in the betting on who will win the 2024 White House race. The controversial Governor of Florida, Ron DeSantis, has now become the favourite pushing out Trump. He’s been helped by an extensive profile which has just been published by the New Yorker and this from the Daily Beast gives a summary of his approach. DeSantis’ opposition to vaccine mandates, for example, included signing legislation “telling companies that they were not free to decide…