As can be seen from the Wikipedia table there has been a marked move to LAB with the four most recent surveys having the party with double-digit leads. This has been partly driven by a Tory decline and partly by LAB edging up. The LAB/LD/GRN aggregate is now mostly at 60%+ – an important figure to bear in mind given the level of tactical voting that there has been in recent by-elections. This could all change quickly once Johnson is…
The chart based on trades on the Betfair exchange says it all. The big movement on the next CON leader market has been to the former hot favourite and ex-Chancellor, Rishi Sunak who today launched what looks like a highly professional campaign to succeed Johnson. The numbers here are very similar to the next PM market where Starmer has dropped almost completely out of it following the now near certainty that the next PM will be whoever the Tories choose….
I’ve noted before here how over the last three-quarters of a century Oxford graduates have totally dominated British politics when it comes to leading their parties to victory in general elections. The above table sets out the alma mater of the leaders the winning parties since 1935 and the trend is extraordinary. Only at GE1951 and GE1992 was the winner not an Oxford grad. In fact Churchill and Major did not go to university. I was sort of expecting that…
So the Labour leader will not be quitting his post as he said he would have done if he had been fined. This means the notion that there could be a general election campaign with LAB without a leader is not going to happen. It was always a risky strategy by Starmer to have made this commitment but it did put pressure on BoJo. Mike Smithson
The news from Downing Street this morning about Boris Johnson’s intention has led to a huge shake-up of the next prime minister betting as the chart shows. A big gainer has been Ben Wallace who has moved up from a 6.5% chance to 22% this afternoon. He was helped by some CON members’ polling from YouGov that had him ahead. The fieldwork for this was mostly before Johnson’s intentions were made known. The other upward mover has been Deputy PM…
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