politicalbetting.com

I’ve noted before here how over the last three-quarters of a century Oxford graduates have totally dominated British politics when it comes to leading their parties to victory in general elections. The above table sets out the alma mater of the leaders the winning parties since 1935 and the trend is extraordinary. Only at GE1951 and GE1992 was the winner not an Oxford grad. In fact Churchill and Major did not go to university. I was sort of expecting that…

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So the Labour leader will not be quitting his post as he said he would have done if he had been fined. This means the notion that there could be a general election campaign with LAB without a leader is not going to happen. It was always a risky strategy by Starmer to have made this commitment but it did put pressure on BoJo. Mike Smithson

The news from Downing Street this morning about Boris Johnson’s intention has led to a huge shake-up of the next prime minister betting as the chart shows. A big gainer has been Ben Wallace who has moved up from a 6.5% chance to 22% this afternoon. He was helped by some CON members’ polling from YouGov that had him ahead. The fieldwork for this was mostly before Johnson’s intentions were made known. The other upward mover has been Deputy PM…

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TSE

TSE

Another set of terrible front pages for Johnson as he refuses to face reality and accept that his time as prime minister is coming to an end. He’s managed to put the inevitable off till Monday and the Mail and the Express remain loyal. The other papers are dreadful. This of itself is something of an achievement given the many predictions of him not lasting Wednesday that were being aired yesterday. It is hard to see see any change before…

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TSE