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Chart from Betdata.io The chart above from Betdata.io reflects how badly Rishi Sunak blew his opportunity last night, it was his last major opportunity to damage Liz Truss before the ballots go out to Tory members. Past form suggests Tory members send their ballots back quickly so even if Sunak damages Truss later in the later hustings it won’t have much impact. I know betting markets have been spectacularly wrong before, but I don’t think so in this instance, based…

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I was asked to sum up tonight’s debate in word and I used the word unedifying as Rishi Sunak mansplained Liz Truss to within an inch of her life and Liz Truss displayed all depth of a puddle. Former republican Truss produced so many of Labour’s election posters and broadcasts tonight. I’m also expecting a YouGov poll on tonight’s debate. TSE

This should bugger up any plans for Boris Johnson to make a return. TSE

Sunak needs something to change the narrative With Tory members set to receive their ballot packs at the start of August real voting looks will start very soon. The experience of postal leadership ballots in all parties is that members don’t hang around. A large number vote within a day or so of getting the ballot forms. So time is running out for Sunak if the membership polling has this right. The series of hustings meetings being arranged throughout August…

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The clash, electorally, between Corbyn and Labour would be fascinating Jeremy Corbyn as mayor of London? Well I’ve read less fanciable stories in recent times however I don’t think Mayor Corbyn is likely. I do expect Sadiq Khan and other ambitious Labour politicians to ensure they are at Westminster in May 2024 in anticipation of Labour taking power sometime in 2024 so there could be an unexpected Labour candidate. With Priti Patel shamefully using the 2011 AV referendum result as…

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The prospect of Boris Johnson returning for a second stint as Prime Minister fills me with a sense of foreboding that is only matched by when my girlfriend asks to borrow my mobile phone or laptop but we have to brace ourselves for those scenarios happening. The Sunday Times isn’t alone in reporting that Multiple sources claim [Boris Johnson] believes he will one day return as prime minister, like his hero Sir Winston Churchill, who had two stints in No…

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I am finding the above YouGov CON Member’s table on Wikipedia to be an excellent resource during the current contest. Looking at it Sunak has struggled to progress while Truss has done far better following the first round of polling. This weekend I am expecting a number of national voting polls including from Opinium and my guess is that we will see some named leader polling. How would people vote at a general election with Truss and then Sunak running…

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