As the Wikipedia poll table shows there has been no recovery in the Tory polling position since Johnson decided to throw in the towel and step down as PM. But could that change as we get beyond September 6th which is when the new leader will start. The previous experience is that new leaders can get a significant polling bounce. Those of us who have been around long enough will remember what happened when Gordon Brown replaced Tony Blair in…
The expectation was that Tom Tugendhat would be the one to lose out in this third round of voting and so it has been. But the one who has the biggest headache is Penny Mordaunt who has seen her vote drop even though there was one fewer candidate. She should have been putting on votes at this stage because momentum is very important. For the hot favourite and leader, Sunak, this was a great round increasing his vote by 15…
It’s looking like a Sunak/Truss final two As MPs prepare for the third round of voting the above shows how punters are seeing the race. Penny, who only a few days ago was rated as a 58% chance in the betting has slipped sharply while Truss has made a recovery. Sunak, though, continues to dominate. I still think that at these odds the ex-Chancellor is good value. The Spectator is backing Badenoch and I just wonder if she could exceed…
And the Penny decline continues With a lot more people expected to spend the day indoors then it is likely we will see a fair amount of activity on the next CON leader betting markets. As can be seen both Sunak and Truss got tighter with Mordaunt continuing to edge down. Her position is far worse than it looked a week ago. My reading is that Sunak is value as long as you can get longer than evens. I thought…
TSE
Smarkets have this market on whether the Tories will do a 2016 and choose their new leader without the swivel eyed loonies Tory party members having the final say. I cannot see it happening, absent a scandal after the final ballot of Tory MPs featuring the top two. Tory members would be revolting at being excluded once more, and in 2007 and 2016 shows the unhappy precedents of party leaders being crowned without members having the final say on who…
Like a eunuch attempting to star in a hard core porno I expect if the Tories bang on about wokeism and ignore the cost of living crisis they are both in for a world of frustration, embarrassment, and mockery, with the electorate set to play the role of Christian Grey to the Tory Party’s Anastasia Steele. The reality is the Tory party has the levers of powers to try and mitigate the cost of living crisis, and the crisis is…