Is the British public the new Édith Piaf?
This should bugger up any plans for Boris Johnson to make a return. TSE
Truss continues to be a 65% chance in the next PM betting
Sunak needs something to change the narrative With Tory members set to receive their ballot packs at the start of August real voting looks will start very soon. The experience of postal leadership ballots in all parties is that members don’t hang around. A large number vote within a day or so of getting the ballot forms. So time is running out for Sunak if the membership polling has this right. The series of hustings meetings being arranged throughout August…
The Clash: London calling for Corbyn?
The clash, electorally, between Corbyn and Labour would be fascinating Jeremy Corbyn as mayor of London? Well I’ve read less fanciable stories in recent times however I don’t think Mayor Corbyn is likely. I do expect Sadiq Khan and other ambitious Labour politicians to ensure they are at Westminster in May 2024 in anticipation of Labour taking power sometime in 2024 so there could be an unexpected Labour candidate. With Priti Patel shamefully using the 2011 AV referendum result as…
The second coming of Boris Johnson?
The prospect of Boris Johnson returning for a second stint as Prime Minister fills me with a sense of foreboding that is only matched by when my girlfriend asks to borrow my mobile phone or laptop but we have to brace ourselves for those scenarios happening. The Sunday Times isn’t alone in reporting that Multiple sources claim [Boris Johnson] believes he will one day return as prime minister, like his hero Sir Winston Churchill, who had two stints in No…
Sunak leads by 9% as appearing a PM in waiting
YouGov’s CON members’ polling head to heads
I am finding the above YouGov CON Member’s table on Wikipedia to be an excellent resource during the current contest. Looking at it Sunak has struggled to progress while Truss has done far better following the first round of polling. This weekend I am expecting a number of national voting polls including from Opinium and my guess is that we will see some named leader polling. How would people vote at a general election with Truss and then Sunak running…
What do the “Turnip Taliban” think of their MP now?
The hot betting favourite for the next PM, Liz Truss, first had a PB thread about her in 2009 before she even became an MP. She was one of a number of prospective Tory candidates who had been brought on by a big initiative by David Cameron to broaden the base of the party’s MPs. This is from that 2009 PB header: There’s now a betting market on the situation in the safe Tory seat of South West Norfolk where…
Whoever wins it is going to be difficult for CON to stay in power
The Tories need a 5%+ lead We are going to hear a lot during this final phase of the Tory leadership contest about which of Truss or Sunak is best able to lead the party to another general election majority. One of the factors that we have to bear in mind is that in order to hang on then the Tories led by Liz or Rishi probably need a lead on GB votes by at least 5%. This is a…