Beto, who came to prominence in the 2018 midterms, is running for the Governorship of Texas and I just wonder if he could go for the White House at the 2024 elections. I’ve just put £20 on him for the Democrat nomination WH2024 nomination at180/1 with Betfair. There’s no doubt that he’s getting a lot of coverage with the above incident. Mike Smithson
Just imagine you are one of those Tory MPs who came to Westminster as a result of gains made at the last general election. It is likely that when you put yourself forward to be the candidate in a constituency that always went Labour you really had no thought that victory was possible. But then the huge upheaval of the December 2019 election came about and you found yourself an MP with all the changes in your life that meant….
The above betting chart shows just how stable the betting has become with Truss barely moving off a 90% chance since the start of the month. Although the race is occupying so much media attention very littie is happening that is going to prevent the now gaffe-prone Truss from being made leader and getting the call from the Palace on September 6th. At the moment she is running a terrible campaign with U-turn after U-turn saying one thing one day…
Can she really lead the Tories to another majority? On this I think that punters have got this wrong because the challenge facing the Tories at the next election is so great that it is hard to see how they can stay in power unless they secure an overall majority. Apart from the DUP there is no other significant grouping in UK politics to which the Tories are going to be able to link in the event that they don’t…
Fewer than 60% pay income tax Over the past week the big debate in the Tory leadership contest has been on the best way of helping families in the face of the huge energy price increases that are due in the autumn. Liz Truss has been very firm about there being no “handouts” and that people will be helped by her plan to cut taxes almost as soon as she becomes PM. The big problem for her is that fewer…
These were the seats, of course, where Johnson’s Tories made so much progress at GE2019 and played a big part in giving him what amounted to a landslide majority. That, of course, was when Corbyn was the LAB leader and he was a huge negative for the main opposition party. In the forty ‘Red Wall’ seats that were polled, the Tories won all in 2019 but Hartlepool (which was won in a subsequent parliamentary by-election) with 46.7% of the vote…
We are not long off now the US Midterm elections in November when the expectation is that the Democrats will lose control of the House but possibly improve their position in the Senate. At the moment this is split 50:50 with the Vice President having the casting vote. As I noted here last week Betfair has a very different way of defining this market than Smarkets and includes an option for it to come out at 50:50 once again. It…
And LEAVE voters back the woman who was for REMAIN As well as the Redfield & Wilton numbers featured in the previous post the latest YouGov has Starmer 3% ahead as “best PM”.As can be seen LEAVE voters back Truss over Starmer by 48% to 16% which is interesting because since the Referendum Truss has switched from Remain to Leave At the moment the Tory contest is dominating the news and it is hard for the opposition to get a…