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The above betting chart shows just how stable the betting has become with Truss barely moving off a 90% chance since the start of the month. Although the race is occupying so much media attention very littie is happening that is going to prevent the now gaffe-prone Truss from being made leader and getting the call from the Palace on September 6th. At the moment she is running a terrible campaign with U-turn after U-turn saying one thing one day…

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Can she really lead the Tories to another majority? On this I think that punters have got this wrong because the challenge facing the Tories at the next election is so great that it is hard to see how they can stay in power unless they secure an overall majority. Apart from the DUP there is no other significant grouping in UK politics to which the Tories are going to be able to link in the event that they don’t…

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Fewer than 60% pay income tax Over the past week the big debate in the Tory leadership contest has been on the best way of helping families in the face of the huge energy price increases that are due in the autumn. Liz Truss has been very firm about there being no “handouts” and that people will be helped by her plan to cut taxes almost as soon as she becomes PM. The big problem for her is that fewer…

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These were the seats, of course, where Johnson’s Tories made so much progress at GE2019 and played a big part in giving him what amounted to a landslide majority. That, of course, was when Corbyn was the LAB leader and he was a huge negative for the main opposition party. In the forty ‘Red Wall’ seats that were polled, the Tories won all in 2019 but Hartlepool (which was won in a subsequent parliamentary by-election) with 46.7% of the vote…

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We are not long off now the US Midterm elections in November when the expectation is that the Democrats will lose control of the House but possibly improve their position in the Senate. At the moment this is split 50:50 with the Vice President having the casting vote. As I noted here last week Betfair has a very different way of defining this market than Smarkets and includes an option for it to come out at 50:50 once again. It…

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And LEAVE voters back the woman who was for REMAIN As well as the Redfield & Wilton numbers featured in the previous post the latest YouGov has Starmer 3% ahead as “best PM”.As can be seen LEAVE voters back Truss over Starmer by 48% to 16% which is interesting because since the Referendum Truss has switched from Remain to Leave At the moment the Tory contest is dominating the news and it is hard for the opposition to get a…

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As PBers will know I have a sizeable bet on the Tories getting a poll lead in September because the new PM, presumably Truss, will be getting a lot of media attention and all the historical evidence points to replacement PMs at this stage in a Parliament leading to polling improvements for their party. Thie is what happened after Gordon Brown replaced Blair in 2007 and when Major took over from Thatcher in 1990 Truss has one huge benefit and…

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In recent weeks there have been a number of reports that the Culture Secretary, Nadine Dorries, will be made a peer in Johnson’s resignation honours. This would mean that the first electoral test for the Truss administration could be a by-election defence in Mid Bedfordshire where Nadine had a huge majority last time. But based on what the LDs did in Shropshire North and Tiverton and Honiton this could just be possible for them even though they would start in…

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