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An internal Labour analysis being reported by the Guardian is suggesting what I have been predicting, and betting on for several weeks, Truss will get a significant new PM bounce in the polls. The report by Pippa Crerar notes: A memo drawn up by Keir Starmer’s director of strategy, Deborah Mattinson, claimed the foreign secretary could dramatically improve Conservative fortunes. The document, dated 18 August and leaked to the Guardian, comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the…

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America’s in a bad place and democracy is under attack from Trumpian forces in a way American democracy has seen since the concluding days of the presidency of James Buchanan. The relentless optimist in me sees some hope for America, as The Economist notes that America is using ranked choice voting in some states and election, ranked choice voting is what we call the alternative vote, The Economist observes There are few parts of America where the migration of salmon…

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With inflation running rampant and Andrew Bailey, a man so inept he pays full price for a DFS sofa, I suspect following his 0.5% increase last month Bailey will be under further pressure to combat the prediction of inflation peaking at 13.3% next year. Tradition and history suggest the optimal way to combat the scourge of inflation is to increase interest rates, with Liz Truss ‘say[ing] she will change the mandate of the BoE to toughen its focus on inflation,…

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Is Parris right about her shortcomings? There’s a very powerful piece by the former Tory MP Matthew Parris in the Times this morning raising doubts about Liz Truss – the woman who looks set to be the next CON leader and PM. He writes: In Times columns I’ve offered my first impressions of this candidate. They were that she was intellectually shallow, her convictions wafer-thin; that she was driven by ambition pure and simple; that her manner was wooden and…

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The big question that really has not been looked at much during the Conservative leadership campaign is how much the winner will actually help the party at the next general election. Currently on the betting markets it is less than a 25% chance that the Tories will get another majority with similar odds on Labour. The overwhelming betting at the moment is that we’re going to have a hung Parliament. In that context the most likely post election Prime Minister…

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