Of the 40 seats that R&K include in the poll the Tories gained 39 at GE2019. The other seat polled, Hartlepool, was picked up by ‘Johnson’s party in the by-election last year. What is clear is that this is very much the battleground for the next elections though if all 40 were to flip the Tories would still have an overall majority but a very narrow one. On top of that the Tories are going to face fierce attacks defending…
As those who visit the site regularly will know I have a largish bet on the Tories recording a poll lead during September. My reasoning has always been that the new Conservative leader, which we will know on September 6th, is likely to see something of a bounce for the party in the period immediately afterwards. I have been very much influenced by what happened to Labour in June 2007 following the departure of Tony Blair and the arrival at…
Remember Laura Norder? A perennial favourite of Tory conferences – with Home Secretaries vowing to support the police and be tough on criminals. Even Blair joined in with his “tough on crime, tough on the causes of crime” slogan. That was then. Now it is the ECHR, lefty lawyers and other bleeding heart liberals in the government’s sights for, it is said, undermining the fight for justice and the rights of true born Britons to sleep easy in their beds….
An internal Labour analysis being reported by the Guardian is suggesting what I have been predicting, and betting on for several weeks, Truss will get a significant new PM bounce in the polls. The report by Pippa Crerar notes: A memo drawn up by Keir Starmer’s director of strategy, Deborah Mattinson, claimed the foreign secretary could dramatically improve Conservative fortunes. The document, dated 18 August and leaked to the Guardian, comes amid speculation that Truss could be tempted to capitalise on the…
America’s in a bad place and democracy is under attack from Trumpian forces in a way American democracy has seen since the concluding days of the presidency of James Buchanan. The relentless optimist in me sees some hope for America, as The Economist notes that America is using ranked choice voting in some states and election, ranked choice voting is what we call the alternative vote, The Economist observes There are few parts of America where the migration of salmon…
With inflation running rampant and Andrew Bailey, a man so inept he pays full price for a DFS sofa, I suspect following his 0.5% increase last month Bailey will be under further pressure to combat the prediction of inflation peaking at 13.3% next year. Tradition and history suggest the optimal way to combat the scourge of inflation is to increase interest rates, with Liz Truss ‘say[ing] she will change the mandate of the BoE to toughen its focus on inflation,…