On this first day of the Truss Premiership, the betting markets are giving her a 41% chance of being Prime Minister after the next general election. As can be seen from the chart LAB is a 57% chance. I think that these current odds on Truss overstate her chances. This is on two grounds. Labour has consistently had a lead in the polls since last December and there has been little indication that this is easing off even though the…
With Truss taking over as prime minister it is perhaps worth reminding ourselves of the potential weakness she has with the parliamentary Conservative Party. On the first leadership ballot in July she came away with a meagre 50 votes out of a total 358. That hardly suggests massive backing from her MPs Even when other contenders were dropped she stiil trailed Sunak by some margin in the final MP ballot. This contrasts very sharply with her support amongst party members…
One of the features I find interesting is the choice of pictures of Truss that some papers have used. The ones used by the Mail, Express and the Times are far from flattering. Today she’s flying to Scotland for the traditional meeting with the Queen at Balmoral and we should start to see her cabinet taking shape. The general view is that this is going to be quite right wing. Hopefully we might see the first post-Truss voting intention polls….
I never know what to make of quickie polls like the one published by YouGov in the last half hour. This was carried out after the leadership election result was announced. In many ways the findings are a continuation of what we saw during the campaign where the public appeared to be more supportive of Sunak than Truss What I’m hoping for early is a new voting intention poll to see whether her arrival has impacted on the Tories. Whatever…
Johnson third favourite to get his old job back
To my mind under 64% seems about right because it appeared as though Truss was having a difficult final few campaign days. Not long now before her victory is confirmed Mike Smithson
The final approval ratings on the eve of his exit This weekend we have had the final Opinium poll of the Boris Johnson Premiership and I thought it would to be useful to record how his approval ratings are doing in different parts of the country right to the end. This will be a good pointer to compare with his successor The chart shows the net approval rating lead/deficit that Johnson has compared to Keir Starmer in the latest Opinium…
Above is the Wikipedia polling chart showing how things have moved in the GB national opinion polls since the December 2019 General Election. The trend lines are local regressions. The overall picture is pretty clear and it shows the huge task facing the new Tory leader as she/he takes over on Tuesday. On these numbers the Tories are going to struggle to retain power. They are helped by the FPTP voting system so that their support is much more evenly…