I like this betting market because it seeks to look at the possibilities that there could be after the next election where it is beginning to look that neither of the main parties are in with a real chance of a majority. On this it is very important to check the market rules before making a bet. These are: This market relates to the Prime Minister of the first new government formed after the next UK general election. The first…
The chart shows the next general election most seats betting and as can be seen that the first time both Labour and the Tories are placed at exactly 50% each. Even if the Tories do manage to edge it on the number of seats that doesn’t guarantee that the party will still hold the keys to Number 10 Downing Street. As we have noted before the Tories face the problem that it will be harder for them to find partners…
Liz Triss needs to speak out One of the growing issues that is emerging has been the arrest by police of those who are demonstrating against the notion of monarchy. This happened again in Edinburgh today and I for one feel very uneasy about it. YouGov polling above from last May shows a significant backing for the monarchy but it also shows that a sizeable number of people are not supportive. This is why there are many who are increasingly…
This point has been made before but given the way the betting markets currently give Labour a more than 25% chance of securing a majority it is worth restating. At the last election what was then Corbyn’s party won 202 of the 650 common seats in the worst election result for the party since GE1935. Given the current polling then it’s clear that they’re going to do considerably better than last time and the big question is how well. For…
Am unfortunate feature for the Tories of the timing of the Queen’s death is that it has totally taken over the news narrative which is making it very difficult for the new Tory leader Liz truss to establish herself as someone who can lead her party to beat Starmer. Any hope of honeymoon period is now over. Her first week after winning the nomination was always going to be crucial and as it turned she had just two days of…
If younger voters voted with the same propensity of their elders then elections and this country would be very different as the below chart from the British Election Study shows. I feel sorry for younger voters, in the south particularly, becoming a homeowner feel as realistic as winning the lottery, their taxes seem to pay for a selfish groups of parasitic pensioners, the client vote of the Tory party to get all the goodies in life whilst denying younger voters…
Last month I predicted and tipped that Liz Truss would follow Sir Keir Starmer’s plans to deal with the energy crisis and that has turned out to be accurate. Whilst the policy announced by Liz Truss is popular a majority of the public, including a plurality of Tory and Leave voters, say the policy is too little. I think this stems from the inaction by the Tory government over the last few months. This leads me to the conclusion the…
We have hardly looked at the US mid-term elections on PB but these look set to probably be the biggest political betting gamble of the year. . There is a long history of whichever party has taken the White House two years beforehand having a rough time in the mid-term elections and all the predictions were that the Democrats were going to struggle Two things have changed all of that. The decision of the US Supreme Court to overturn the…