politicalbetting.com

Political maps of England, whether parliamentary or council, often resemble multi-coloured archipelagos in a sea of blue. While urban areas are battlegrounds contested by all the larger parties, rural areas tilt strongly towards the Conservatives. This reservoir of seats on which the Cons have been able to rely for multiple electoral cycles gives them a solid base from which to reach for a majority, and leaves the opposing parties – Labour, LibDems and Greens – hoping for an occasional edge….

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Amongst the oldies the number is 84% After more than a week when the total focus of the vast majority of people in the UK has been on the monarchy, YouGov has produced the above interesting polling which I’ve no doubt will be referred to again and again. The worrying number for the Palace is that 60% of those of 24 or under did not say that they support the monarchy. They are also less likely to have told YouGov…

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The leading political scientist and polling expert, Prof John Curtice, has a great piece behind a PayWall in the New Statesman on how the public now views the monarchy. The numbers are not good for the new King who has waited so long. Curtice notes:  ….public support for the monarchy has slipped to a new low. According to the most recent BSA, just 55 per cent now say it is important to have a monarchy, an all-time low, while a…

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The US mid-term elections take place on November 8th and the general experience is that these are almost always a challenge for the party that controls the White House. As well as state and local elections all seats on the US House of Representatives are up for grabs as are 36 of the 100 seats on the US Senate. Representatives serve two-year terms while Senators serve 6 year ones. It will be recalled that two years ago the Senate saw…

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More money for bankers! We have one at last! According to press reports, Kwasi Kwarteng is thinking of lifting the cap on bankers’ bonuses and presenting it as a Brexit win. To echo the eminent lawyer, Marshall Hall (asked by a judge if his clients were familiar with the phrase res ipsa loquitur) – Chancellor, in the Red Wall, they talk of little else. A little history. The best single essay on financial misbehaviour was written not by a journalist, academic…

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One thing that Boris Johnson has made absolutely clear is that he has hopes of some future in British politics. He continues to be a contributor to big discussions in the Commons and will go on getting a lot of attention from the news media. The question is can he possibly return to the job he had till 2 weeks ago? Clearly the first thing he needs is a vacancy at number 10 and Liz Truss looks pretty settled for…

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Liz Truss is just ending her first full week as prime minister and what an extremely tricky challenge she has had to face. Rather than have a short honeymoon period where she could make herself better known she has had to stand aside and make supporting the new monarch her first priority. She had one day with her original plan since then she has been totally overtaken by events. I don’t know what she had in mind for her first…

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