If the betting markets have got this right then Liz Truss is not likely to be fighting the next general election as Conservative leader and PM. The betting above shows that punters think she has just over a 10% chance of going this year with a near 59% chance of leaving in 2023 Clearly she has a lot to learn and once again today at PMQs she really struggled. She needs to prepare for this set piece even much better…
Voters compare Truss with Starmer By far the worst numbers here for Truss are on likeability. That just 11% say she is likeable is awful for the PM and it is hard to see what she does about it. The perception spills over onto the trustworthy rating and whether they are seen as competent. One of the things that has been marked over the past five weeks is how Starmer’s personal ratings have moved up. She has been a godsend…
What is happening in the financial markets now is as dangerous as what happened in October 2008. Unlike then, this does not relate to one or two failing institutions (though that is a crude summary of what happened). Rather, it is two-fold: on the financial side, the issue of government borrowing, how it is to be paid for and how a path back to some sort of fiscal stability to lay the foundations for growth are to be achieved. Politically,…
One thing that is becoming clear is that Joe Biden is moving upwards in the White House race betting for 2024 but will he stand given that he celebrates his 80th birthday next month? He is reported to have told senior party figures that he is planning to put himself forwards though that has not been confirmed in public. What could make a difference might be how well the Democrats do in the November 8th mid-term elections which traditionally see…
The voting intention polls over the last few weeks have been absolutely terrible for the Tories and their new leader Liz Truss. For whatever reason voters don’t seem to warm to Truss and the effect on the party could be catastrophic. Even if there is a bit of an improvement the challenge facing the governing party is immense. Tory MPs can do the maths and many will no doubt conclude that their time in the Commons will be over by…
But could a new CON leader change things?
Video: Footage of Liz Truss rightly denouncing the monarchy. Will Liz Truss damage the monarchy the way she has damaged the Tory Party? This weekend The Times reported that Truss may ask King Charles III to approve delay of Boris Johnson’s peerages Boris Johnson has nominated up to eight Conservative MPs for peerages in his resignation honours list, prompting frantic efforts by Liz Truss to avoid a series of damaging by-election defeats. The former prime minister is understood to have…