Which contenders should LAB and the LDs fear most?

Which contenders should LAB and the LDs fear most?

This is entirely unscientific but I’ve been trying to work out which of the Tory contenders the LDs and LAB would least like to face at the general election. Both opposition parties have high hopes of taking CON seats and clearly, the person who becomes the next PM will have a big impact on that. My guess is that Tom Tugenhart would be the PM LDs would most fear. He’s never been tainted by taking office under Johnson and would…

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Snap debate poll gives it to Tugendhat

Snap debate poll gives it to Tugendhat

The snap poll from Opinium looks about right to me but I’m surprised that Liz Truss got as much as 7%. She was truly awful and not far behind was the betting favourite, Penny Mordaunt who simply did not have it either. Tugendhat was really excellent and it really is surprising that he was largely unknown until this race started. As I write you can get 54/1 on him on Betfair. Fortunately, I cashed out of my Mordaunt position during…

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How will the Tory betting look after tonight’s TV debate?

How will the Tory betting look after tonight’s TV debate?

Will Mordaunt still be favourite? One of the things about this contest is that all the contenders’ bar Sunak and possibly Truss are relatively unknown to the public so this event will give many of us the first chance to see them. For one of the features of Johnson’s leadership is that apart from the Chancellor few other ministers got a real look in. Apart from one or two Youtube clips I have never see Penny M on a big…

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Support for Brexit drops to new low with YouGov

Support for Brexit drops to new low with YouGov

Barely a third now say it was right The latest YouGov Brexit tracker is now out and shows that support is down to just 35% – the lowest level yet since the pollster started tracking this after the 2016 Referendum. A full chart showing every poll is here on the website of John Curtice. Tory strategists will have to factor in how being on the wrong side of public opinion will hurt the party. Even in the Midlands YouGov finds…

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Johnson’s opposition to Sunak could have the reverse effect

Johnson’s opposition to Sunak could have the reverse effect

According to the Times Johnson is trying to stop Sunak from replacing him and is telling those who have been defeated in the race to support anybody else. This is from the report: The prime minister has said he will not endorse any leadership candidates or publicly intervene in the contest. He is understood, however, to have held conversations with failed contenders to succeed him in which he made clear his view that Sunak should not become prime minister. This…

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Political Love Island

Political Love Island

“Liar”. “Untrustworthy”. “Corrupt”. The highlights of a recent Boris Johnson word cloud. They are the reason the Tory party is choosing a new leader. That and the fact that he no longer appears to be an election winner. (We will come to that later.)  So how has Penny Mordaunt, now in a good second place after two voting rounds, chosen to present herself? Well, she has got herself into quite the tangle over her record as a Minister and her…

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