What a waste of 100 nominations
As I predicted yesterday, Boris Johnson would do a redux of 2016 and pull out of a leadership contest. TSE
So why haven’t Team Boris announced the names or his candidacy?
This doesn’t sound like the strategy of a campaign that actually has 100 nominations, as we say in Yorkshire this appears to be all fart all and no follow through from Team Boris. Why aren’t they publishing the names? These tweets from Steven Swinford indicate how it really is going for Team Big Dog. Bet accordingly. TSE
Memo to Tory MPs and members thinking about backing Boris
The views of the electorate are not charitable towards Boris Johnson, I think people forget just how bad it got at the end of his premiership where the lies and hypocrisy were so overwhelmingly and damaging for Boris Johnson and the party. If Tory MPs and members are unsure how toxic Boris Johnson is with the country they only have to look at those word clouds above. If Boris Johnson does become Prime Minister next week I would like to…
Why hypothetical polling is bobbins
Whilst all polls are hypothetical polls the hypothetical polls that have several other hypothetical situations added in usually turn out to be inaccurate. As Sam Freedman points out why the hypothetical polling by JL Partners will be unlikely to survive first contact with reality. I’ve been pointing out for years the flaw with hypothetical polling, in 2019 I wrote ‘Hypothetical polls are a lot like Hawaiian pizzas, they should be avoided at all costs by right thinking people everywhere‘ from…
The tectonic plates appear to be shifting
Today’s leak from Boris Johnson’s camp about having 100 backers looks like an episode of The Inbetweeners, this indicates to me Boris Johnson’s campaign isn’t going as well as he hoped. I feel confident in laying Boris Johnson in the next PM market even though I have a nagging feeling that he has the chutzpah to take it to the voters even if he loses 235 to 120 in the voting of Tory MPs. I think Boris Johnson may perform…
The Tories really are up a certain creek without a paddle or canoe
It really bodes ill for the Tory party that so many adjectives about them need censoring. Whoever wins the Tory leadership contest next week it is all about how bad the Tory defeat at the next election will be, anywhere from an honourable defeat to an extinction level event defeat that makes 1997 look like a good result for the Tories. TSE
This has major betting implications
My hunch is that older Tory members, the ones that do not have an email address, are disproportionately more likely to favour Boris Johnson over other candidates, which could upset a few expectations. But this is further proof that Sir Graham Brady and the rest of the 1922 are terrible at organising things, I get the feeling they couldn’t organise a farting contest in a baked beans factory. The result of the second Tory leadership contest of 2022 could be…
Some good polling for Sunak over Johnson but terrible polling for the Tories
If Boris Johnson is going to be stopped becoming Tory leader and Prime Minister next week Tory MPs and members will need to see that Boris Johnson isn’t best placed to get the best Tory result at the next election, that Boris Johnson is a loser. The next election will be the first Labour v Con fight that Boris Johnson won’t be facing an elderly socialist opponent that some have accused of antisemitism. It looks like Sunak might give the…