politicalbetting.com

Ipsos aren’t the only pollsters to find support/opinions on Brexit being very low. I take the view that people saying Brexit is going badly/viewed negatively is not synonymous with rejoining however I recall a conversation I had with a Brexiteer in the run up to the referendum who took the view that if the UK voted to Leave and the country ultimately decided Brexit was a mistake they would vote to overturn it. Unless something fundamentally changes I suspect support/approval…

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Will Boris Johnson backing Tory MPs take notice of this polling? Rishi Sunak must see the polling showing that 69% of voters thinking Boris Johnson will not becoming back and think nice, that’s a bad position for Boris Johnson to find himself in. The striking numbers are just how many Tory voters do not want and don’t expect Boris Johnson to return. There’s a reason why his polling was closer to Jeremy Corbyn’s polling in December 2019. TSE

In 1872, Mr Benjamin Disraeli (as he then was) made one of his famous savage attacks on the Liberal Party. In it, he famously characterised Gladstone’s cabinet as ‘a range of exhausted volcanoes.’ What did he mean by this? Well, he meant that all the fire and vigour had been expended and now there was nothing left but a large lump of useless rock. It was an expression that resonated very much in the country at large, given the amount…

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This betting opportunity from Smarkets on a by election in Boris Johnson’s seat is intriguing. This isn’t a bet on the outcome of such a by election but whether there will be one. This could be a winner in a variety of ways, inter alia, Boris Johnson willingly stands down to earn money without having to declare it to the parliamentary authorities. Boris Johnson willingly stands down because Sunak turns things around for the Tories and there’s no desire for…

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Looking at this market from William Hill on the next cabinet member to leave I can understand why the disgraced national security risk Suella Braverman is the favourite but my money and value is on Ben Wallace at 25/1. With a brutal round of spending cuts due in the next few weeks then I wonder if the Chancellor, with Sunak’s implicit backing, cuts defence spending or fails to raise it to the 3% GDP target. The harsh reality is that…

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The country will thank the Tories if the Elections Act 2022 precedents sees the ghastly first past the post vote system replaced with something much more fairer. After all the Tory party doesn’t use FPTP to elect their leaders. In 2010 the Lib Dems asked for electoral reform plebiscite as part of the coalition agreement, now in any future parliament they or other parties will just ask for electoral reform without the need for a plebiscite. TSE

Appointing Braverman shows Sunak’s weakness I know it is gauche to talk about your winning bets but one of the reasons I felt confident on betting that premiership of Liz Truss would be brief was the absolute cabinet of talentless roasters and ideologues she assembled, primus inter pares was the appointment of Suella Braverman as Home Secretary. Normally I’m a fan of Cambridge educated lawyers, such as Ken Clarke and Geoffrey Cox but Braverman isn’t part of that illustrious company….

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Unlike Jeremy Corbyn, Sir Keir Starmer isn’t a drag on his party so Labour will be doubly confident that their party is much better liked than the Tories who are reeling from the latter end of Boris Johnson’s tenure as Prime Minister and Lady Jane Truss’s stint as Prime Minister. The one sliver of comfort for the Tories is that Sunak polls significantly better than his party, something David Cameron consistently managed for his tenure as party leader, which might…

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