Looking at the regular Smarkets next poll lead market I have to say that given the political landscape and increasing food, mortgages, and energy bills then the Tory polling is likely to remain in the toilet even though I’m expecting a modest Sunak polling boost simply because he’s not Liz Truss nor Boris Johnson. My expectation is that a Tory poll lead in the near term is likely to be as rare as a decent Radiohead single so not 2022…
Back in July I advised against backing Boris Johnson making a comeback as Tory leader and PM because of insurmountable problems he faces, most importantly the investigation he is currently under. With the Tory polling cratering it seems the Tories are destined for a (long) stint in opposition, before he became Prime Minister I said, along with many others, that Boris Johnson is too lazy to be Prime Minister, he’s even more lazy to be Leader of the Opposition which…
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On Saturday evening I advised backing Penny Mordaunt as our next PM at 34s, right now she’s 24s on Betfair, I have no inclination to back her any further, even if she obtains the requisite nominations today, there is a pathway for her to become our next PM as she hoovers up the anti Rishi Sunak votes in the parliamentary party and then in the members vote. This may be the only and last opportunity for Mordaunt to become Prime…
As I predicted yesterday, Boris Johnson would do a redux of 2016 and pull out of a leadership contest. TSE
This doesn’t sound like the strategy of a campaign that actually has 100 nominations, as we say in Yorkshire this appears to be all fart all and no follow through from Team Boris. Why aren’t they publishing the names? These tweets from Steven Swinford indicate how it really is going for Team Big Dog. Bet accordingly. TSE
The views of the electorate are not charitable towards Boris Johnson, I think people forget just how bad it got at the end of his premiership where the lies and hypocrisy were so overwhelmingly and damaging for Boris Johnson and the party. If Tory MPs and members are unsure how toxic Boris Johnson is with the country they only have to look at those word clouds above. If Boris Johnson does become Prime Minister next week I would like to…