It is early days yet of course but so far Sunak does not seem to have had any impact on the next general election betting. Maybe this is because his arrival has been what the market has expected for well over a year. This will change of course and the new leader’s first big priority is to try to turn the polling situation aiming at least to get the Tory deficit down to single figures. What we do know about…
The charts from NBC show the early voting data from three states that could be crucial in the mid-term election on Tuesday. The party numbers are based on those who have registered their party affiliation on the state databases. These do not mean that votes have actually been cast for the specified parties but if I was a Democratic strategist at the moment I would take a little bit of comfort from this information. Having been laying the Republicans for…
We are just 4 days off the November 8th Midterm elections in the United States when the Democrats will be defending their majority in the House of Representatives and hoping to maintain the edge in the Senate. There are also hundreds of state and local contests taking place. The generic ballot polling question which sums up the broad changing mood in America is featured in the chart above and as can be seen in recent days there has been a…
But still a long way behind
A gift to his opponents at the general election? We have to keep on remembering that Sunak is relatively new to politics which may explain some of his approaches. Announcing that he wasn’t going to go to the COP climate change conference in Egypt but then reversing it inevitably is going to be portrayed as a U-turn and having a reputation for u-turns comes at a price. This latest move that some of the pledges he made during his leadership…
The betting chart shows the movements on the general election outcome that have taken place over the last 6-months. As can be seen a hung parliament and a Labour majority are now running head to head with a Conservative majority down as a 17% chance. Given the recent very strong polling for LAB then it might be argued that the party should be favourite to win an overall majority.. There seems to be the view that the current polls with…
It was on September 23rd that Kwasi Kwarteng delivered his now infamous budget – the first big move by the Liz Truss government. At the time the Tories were polling relatively well even though they were still behind. These were the three polls immediately before his statement: Techne 7% LAB lead YouGov 8% LAB lead Opinium 5% LAB lead The response of the market was terrifying and the following day the pound reached an all-time low against the American dollar….
My guess is that over the next couple of years we’re going to see quite a number of stories like that involving the former Health Secretary, Hancock, in the papers this morning. Given what is happening in the polls it is very hard to envisage more than a handful of Tories remaining after the general election and all 360 Tory MPs must be worried about their job security. Even those sitting MPs with substantial majorities will find it hard to…