Those he’s backed lost but he’s going for WH2024 So Trump has made his announcement about his plan to run in 2024 and he’s already filed his papers so he is an official nominee. That of itself resolves one betting market on whether he would be a runner. The submission of the papers makes it official. His decision comes after a dreadful set of midterms when just about everybody he gave his backing to ended up a loser. In the…
The above interview between Rishi Sunak and Beth Rigby of Sky News raises a question that the prime minister needs to think more carefully about and develop a better response. This is going to be a key attack point for opposition parties at the next general election against the Tories. The PM comes out of this encounter looking evasive and it was similar with other interviews that he has had. The question the Tories will be repeatedly asked is very…
We have been focused so much recently on the American elections that we have ignored the betting on what is going to happen at the next UK General Election. The chart above shows how the outcome has fluctuated between a hung Parliament or a LAB majority and the latter has now just edged into the lead as a 43% chance. In spite of all the current polling I am still sceptical about Labour’s chances of making the 124 gains that…
Frank Luntz on how the polling got things wrong Luntz first came to notice in the UK, and on PB, with his focus groups on the 2005 Tory leadership contest that was featured on Newsnight. My view at the time was that it was Luntz who helped ensure that Cameron was able to beat David Davis who was the favourite. The above is his analysis on last Tuesday’s elections. Mike Smithson
One of the most stunning figures to have emerged in the past few days is that the effort to save sterling in the aftermath of the September budget could have cost the UK pensions industry up to £75 billion. Well Kwasi is no longer Chancellor and Truss is no longer Prime Minister but you can see this being used against the Tories for generations to come. No doubt it will feature in the next general election campaign. For the cost…
US politics after the Red Wave that didn’t happen The big news in American politics this week looks set to be the announcement promised by Donald Trump on Tuesday about his intentions. The widespread belief is that he will announce that he’s running for the 2024 nomination – something that many senior figures in his party are very much opposed to. This was planned by the ex-president when the polls were suggesting a “Red Wave” was about to sweep the…
This tribute from Times Radio to Sir David Butler, who died earlier on this week, is well worth watching. For those of us who follow elections and analyse them the work of Sir David Butler helped us understand them a lot better. The Guardian wrote on Wednesday Sir David Butler, the father of modern election science whose career spanned more than 70 years, has died at the aged of 98. Butler’s friend and biographer, the journalist Michael Crick, paid tribute…
I love analysis like this from Patrick English, there’s not much more I can add other than it shows how bad the position the Tory party finds itself and that Sunak is the least worst option. That lead for Starmer over Sunak is jaw dropping but that lead looks tiny when compared when compared to the lead Starmer has over Johnson. Tory MPs in the Red Wall might see Boris Johnson as their best option in saving their seats but…