I was very struck by the above table showing how much money has been spent on some of the Senate campaigns where voting takes place today. Clearly far less is spent in the less competitive races and it will be interesting to compare the results with this table. I have featured this as a way of demonstrating how politics in the United States is so very different from what we have in the UK where there are very strict controls…
Johnson has a wheeze to avoid them The Times is reporting that four current Tory MPs are to be made peers in the Johnson resignation honours list. They are Alister Jack, the ScotsSec, Nadine Dorries, ex-culture secretary, Nigel Adams, and the outgoing Cop26 president Alok Sharma. But there will be no by-elections for the four have all agreed to defer taking their peerages until the end of this parliament. This is a procedure I have not heard of before and…
The generic polling has GOP 1.1 % ahead All the signs are that tomorrow’s midterm elections in the US are going to see record turnouts for these elections when all the House seats will be fought over as well as 35 Senate ones. There are also hundreds of other contests including a large number of State Governors. The big polling picture comes from the generic voting question but individual battles are showing a lot of variances. Generally speaking at the…
A platform for a Trump White House bid? The charts show the betting trend for tomorrow’s big MidTerm elections when it is looking as though the Republicans with take both the House and the Senate. The party will also do well in hundreds of state elections. The big question is what does this mean for Donald Trump who is already hinting about making a big announcement in the next fortnight about his plans for WH2024. The general view is that…
The kernel of doubt at the back of my mind on why Labour might not win a majority at the next election is Sunak’s lead on the economy. Now polling is not static and Sunak’s lead on the economy may have evaporated or extended but if the cost of living issue is still live at the next election then that lead for Sunak on the economy will be as useless as a chocolate fireguard. The following polling shows the economy…
Light the beacons of Gondor, it turns out Boris Johnson was telling the truth last month, an event rarer than a decent Radiohead album, the BBC report that Boris Johnson had signed up enough MPs to mount a challenge to Rishi Sunak for the Conservative leadership, senior Tory Sir Graham Brady has confirmed. Mr Johnson dramatically pulled out of the race amid speculation he did not have the 100 nominations needed. But Sir Graham, who runs Tory leadership contests, said…
The big political betting markets at the moment are on next Tuesday’s midterm elections when the big issue will be whether the Democrats will lose control of the Senate. At the moment it is a 50-50 split with the VP, Kamala Harris, having the casting vote. A loss of House control looks pretty certain. The Democrats have got to get through the elections without any net losses to maintain this position and some of the polls have been moving against…