One of the most stunning figures to have emerged in the past few days is that the effort to save sterling in the aftermath of the September budget could have cost the UK pensions industry up to £75 billion. Well Kwasi is no longer Chancellor and Truss is no longer Prime Minister but you can see this being used against the Tories for generations to come. No doubt it will feature in the next general election campaign. For the cost…
US politics after the Red Wave that didn’t happen The big news in American politics this week looks set to be the announcement promised by Donald Trump on Tuesday about his intentions. The widespread belief is that he will announce that he’s running for the 2024 nomination – something that many senior figures in his party are very much opposed to. This was planned by the ex-president when the polls were suggesting a “Red Wave” was about to sweep the…
This tribute from Times Radio to Sir David Butler, who died earlier on this week, is well worth watching. For those of us who follow elections and analyse them the work of Sir David Butler helped us understand them a lot better. The Guardian wrote on Wednesday Sir David Butler, the father of modern election science whose career spanned more than 70 years, has died at the aged of 98. Butler’s friend and biographer, the journalist Michael Crick, paid tribute…
I love analysis like this from Patrick English, there’s not much more I can add other than it shows how bad the position the Tory party finds itself and that Sunak is the least worst option. That lead for Starmer over Sunak is jaw dropping but that lead looks tiny when compared when compared to the lead Starmer has over Johnson. Tory MPs in the Red Wall might see Boris Johnson as their best option in saving their seats but…
He’s getting the blame for the MidTerms Next Tuesday Donald Trump is due to make a statement and the speculation is that he will seek to announce his intention to run for the White House again in 2024. I’m starting to think that he might not actually throw his hat into the ring because of the wave of criticism that he is coming under for his role in the Republican party’s failure to meet expectations in Midterms last Tuesday. The…
Donald Trump is due to make a big announcement next week and it is widely thought that he will use this to state that he will be standing for the presidency in 2024. Apparently, he was talked out of making such an announcement before the midterms on Tuesday but it would appear that he seems to be set on trying to get his old job back although things have changed quite dramatically. The most successful Republican in Tuesday’s elections was…
Looking at the Wikipedia polling table that have been three main phases since Johnson left office in September. Firstly the Tories appear to get a bit of a boost and we saw quite number of polls where the LAB lead was down in single digits. The best from Opinium at the end of September had it down to 5% Then we had the Kwartang budget which was widely criticised from the start and saw a big decline in Tory poll…
But De Santis now the betting favourite In the next few months I expect to see both DeSantis and Trump putting their hats into the ring in the fight for Republican WH2024 nomination This looks set to be a long and fierce fight and it is hard at this stage to make a judgement as to which one will do it. That we can now contemplate a serious challenge to the former president is quite remarkable. I didn’t really expect…