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After the result in Chester Peter Kellner published a piece which said In all fifteen “big swing” by-elections between 1958 and 2012, the difference between the implied national lead and what actually happened was at least 12 percentage points, and after  all but three of the by-elections the drop was more than twenty points. For example, ten years ago, Labour gained Corby on a similar swing to this year’s two comparable by-elections, Wakefield and Chester. But in Corby, Labour’s baseline…

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I think the betting markets have got this right and that LAB is in with a very good chance of winning most seats at the next general election but at the moment an overall majority.is rated as an evens chance. Ever since the complete collapse of the party in Scotland at the 2015 General Election what is now Starmer’s party has always been in a very difficult position. it will be recalled that at the 2010 general election LAB took…

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What is dominating US politics at the moment is the runoff election on Tuesday between the final two contenders in the Georgia Senate race. This is happening because of a Georgia state law that requires a candidate in an election to secure more than 50% of the vote something which did not happen in the midterms on November 8th. In that situation then the top 2 in the ballot go forward to a runoff election. A victory for Warnock would…

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The seat was CON at GE2010 The result of the first Westminster by-election since Sunak became prime minister came in the early hours and the result is above. Essentially the outcome is in line with the current opinion polls which have seen the Tories slump although there has been a modest recovery in recent weeks. This was the first by-election of Sunak’s premiership and if there were hopes that the new man would herald a change of fortunes for the…

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Will the Tories be doing better or worse than the polls Above is a table from David Cowling showing the detailed results of the Chester constituency since the 1992 general election. For Sunak this is his first Westminster by-election test. While victory looks remote he might find some comfort if the swing against the Tories in a real Westminster election is not as great as the polls. It will also be a good pointer for him if the swing against…

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But expect a very low turnout Today’s by-election follows the resignation of incumbent MP Chris Matheson after accusations of sexual misconduct and a recommendation from the Independent Expert Panel that he be suspended from the Commons for four weeks. It hasn’t attracted very much attention because in the current context it is hard to see the Tories, who were second place at the last election, managing to come anywhere near. The LDs don’t put resources into fighting Labour held seats. Indeed there has hardly…

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The FT is reporting this morning that the EU has threatened Elon Musk with being banned in Europe unless the social media giant continues to follow its strict moderation rules. It is reporting that the threat came in a video call between Elon Musk and the EU official in charge of implementing the EU’s digital rules. One factor is that the California-based social media giant would have to agree to be subject to a yearly EU audit on a range…

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