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A special report from Gerry Hassan The UK Supreme Court judgement that the Scottish Parliament does not have the right tohold a referendum on independence because it is a ‘reserved matter’ to Westminster maynot have been a surprise, but this was still a landmark day for Scotland, independence andthe UK. Take some of the personalised partisan coverage. ‘End of the Road for Sturgeon’ declaredthe Scottish edition of the Daily Mail with more pejorative commentary inside along suchlines as ‘Sturgeon the…

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The reason why LAB appears to do so badly in terms of seats for what appears to be a very large vote share is that its support is far less spread over the country than the Tory vote. A significant part of the Labour vote is in seats with very big majorities and this means essentially those votes are wasted. The Tory vote is spread much more widely This is one of the reasons why I think Labour will struggle…

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Sunak cannot rely on the status quo We are starting to see a fair bit of polling like this where the issue of the UK’s relationship with the EU is the focus. . Last week YouGov had the number of people saying that Brexit was wrong reaching a new level with significantly about a fifth of leave voters taking that view. The above JL Partners poll in the FT looks at this in a different way but the overall picture…

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Where punters are risking their cash

One of the problems for the Tories of the current huge LAB lead in polls is that it is causing quite a number of sitting MPs to consider their future. They don’t want to get to election day in 2024 and suddenly find themselves out of a job. Over the last week or so 2 or 3 Tory MPs have announced that they will not be standing at the next general election and William Wragg, the member member for Hazelgrove…

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In these dark days we need all the shafts of light we can get in our politics. So it is with some gratitude that today we learn of two cases being brought before the European Court of Human Rights in the very same week that the tomato-throwing Lord Chancellor and Minister of Justice again brings forward his Bill of Rights and answers questions on it. What make these cases so delicious is that they are being brought by, first, Owen…

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Inevitably Brexit will get blamed This is going to be a hard one for Sunak and his party to deal. For there is little doubt that for whatever reason the UK is not faring as well as other close economies in Europe. This comes at a time when Brexit is under greater scrutiny with a record number of people. according to the polling, who say it was wrong. At some stage you can see pressure mounting for a closer and…

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Whenever there is a new Prime Minister the pollster, Ipsos, issues its updated version of the above chart showing the opening satisfaction ratings for the new man or woman at Number 10. Ipsos is able to do this because it has been in the UK political polling longer than anybody else I don’t think we should read too much into how Sunak fares. I would argue, the ratings were largely formed by the circumstances in which he took over from…

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