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Yet another Trump campaign fails What is remarkable about this result is that a month ago the Republicans won every statewide election in Georgia. The final result here is very close but that was to be expected. At some stage the Republicans will work out a way of dealing with Trump who continues to have a massive influence over the party and who gets nominated for key races. You would have thought that each defeat would be another nail in…

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If you thought that the US mid-term elections were all done and dusted 4 weeks ago on November 8th then the fact that there is voting today in the state of Georgia might come as a surprise. In what is unique amongst the 50 states that make up the US Georgia has a law that a winning candidate has to secure more than 50% of the vote and that, by a fraction, did not happen in the first round of…

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So much of the current electoral analysis is based on the premise that the battle will just be LAB vs CON. This is part, but only a part of the story, because to stay in power the Tories have to ensure that they keep their seat losses down to 46 and they will be fighting to defend in three main areas. Firstly there is Scotland where the Tories will be defending 6 seats and where their opponent will be the…

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It all depends on how many CON losses All of the discussion after the Chester by-election about whether LAB can get a majority is irrelevant to whether SKS moves into Number 10. The big issue is the Tory seat total. Sunak or his successor will have to relinquish power if his party loses enough seats so that they don’t have an effective majority taking into account, of course, a possible arrangement with the DUP. Their problem is that the Tories…

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I would like to bet on England but even after yesterday’s match, I remain unconvinced. Alas if they do beat France next weekend the odds will be a whole lot tighter than they are at the moment. Mike Smithson

Good Lord, the optics from the Tory government are awful, they really are, every time I have doubts about Labour winning an outright majority at the next election then some chump like Zahawi comes out with nonsense like this. I note with interest that the Tory client vote weren’t asked to accept a huge real terms cut to their state pensions. TSE

I was born a few weeks before the Winter of Discontent starred, I fear I’m going to fully experience a new Winter of Discontent this year in fact this is shaping up to be a de facto General Strike and we’ve not had one of those in nearly a century. What makes this period of industrial strife feel different is the sheer number of professions on strike, including the truly best of society, such as nurses and lawyers, without who…

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After the result in Chester Peter Kellner published a piece which said In all fifteen “big swing” by-elections between 1958 and 2012, the difference between the implied national lead and what actually happened was at least 12 percentage points, and after  all but three of the by-elections the drop was more than twenty points. For example, ten years ago, Labour gained Corby on a similar swing to this year’s two comparable by-elections, Wakefield and Chester. But in Corby, Labour’s baseline…

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