If you look through the latest polls and the reporting of them you would assume that has been a massive switch of Conservative voters to LAB. So the 12% CON lead at GE2019 has now become LAB ones of 15% or more. This points to scores of gain by Starmer’s party at the next election. WRONG. This is because of the widespread polling practice of netting off and just reporting the views of those who give an indication of which…
Michelle Mone in the Lords was bad enough. What on earth possessed Cameron? It comes as no surprise to find that the VIP lane during Covid resulted in her and others making large profits from their friendships and contacts with politicians, the supply of goods fit for the purpose being purely incidental and often non-existent. Questions have been asked about what she bought with the humongous profits made and where the money has gone. What ought to be asked is…
This adds to Sunak’s problem The latest polling on the nurses strike should really worry Ministers because the scale of the backing from the public it’s really quite remarkable. The other factor that makes tonight’s survey problematic for the government is that this backing is increasing. Sunak has yet to show how effective he is in dealing with huge industrial disputes that could have great ramifications the many people. A problem is that giving special treatment to the nurses would…
Sums up the whole tournament
Inevitably after the very strong performance in the by-election yesterday the money has been going on LAB to win most seats at the next election. Certainly, the message from the December by-elections is very strong for LAB but both of them have been in seats that were already held and where the Tories were a long way behind. A better test would be in a CON held seat where the majority was under about 10k. Here the evidence from this…
It is hard to read anything into this that we didn’t know beforehand. The Tories are struggling and Labour is benefitting but the turnout was far less than we see in normal council elections. The 10.4% CON to LAB swing was broadly in line with recent national polls but markedly smaller than in Chester two weeks ago. None of the parties put any real effort into this because the outcome was a foregone conclusion. The 25.8% turnout compares with the…
One thing that we know about the by-election tonight in the seat of Urmston and Stretford is that there will be a low turnout and that LAB will win. The vacancy has occurred because the former MP has become Deputy Mayor of Greater Manchester My guess is that the turnout will be somewhat lower than we saw a fortnight ago and we might see the Reform party doing somewhat better. This will be the second of three elections in North…