politicalbetting.com

The seat was CON at GE2010 The result of the first Westminster by-election since Sunak became prime minister came in the early hours and the result is above. Essentially the outcome is in line with the current opinion polls which have seen the Tories slump although there has been a modest recovery in recent weeks. This was the first by-election of Sunak’s premiership and if there were hopes that the new man would herald a change of fortunes for the…

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Will the Tories be doing better or worse than the polls Above is a table from David Cowling showing the detailed results of the Chester constituency since the 1992 general election. For Sunak this is his first Westminster by-election test. While victory looks remote he might find some comfort if the swing against the Tories in a real Westminster election is not as great as the polls. It will also be a good pointer for him if the swing against…

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But expect a very low turnout Today’s by-election follows the resignation of incumbent MP Chris Matheson after accusations of sexual misconduct and a recommendation from the Independent Expert Panel that he be suspended from the Commons for four weeks. It hasn’t attracted very much attention because in the current context it is hard to see the Tories, who were second place at the last election, managing to come anywhere near. The LDs don’t put resources into fighting Labour held seats. Indeed there has hardly…

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The FT is reporting this morning that the EU has threatened Elon Musk with being banned in Europe unless the social media giant continues to follow its strict moderation rules. It is reporting that the threat came in a video call between Elon Musk and the EU official in charge of implementing the EU’s digital rules. One factor is that the California-based social media giant would have to agree to be subject to a yearly EU audit on a range…

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The LAB plan to end the charitable status and thus the VAT exemption on private schools has been around for some time though it has never been centre stage. That changed today at PMQs when Starmer started with the state money that Sunak’s old school, Winchester, receives. The party obviously thinks this is a good way to highlight Sunak’s privileged background which they must believe will help them electorally. No doubt there have been many focus groups This looks set…

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What about the first-time incumbency effect? The betting chart above on which party will win most seats at the next general election reflects the political history of the last 6 months. Most of the time until the early summer Boris Johnson looked as though he could lead the party to another victory. Then we had the difficult revelations about what happened at Number 10 Downing Street during the strict lockdowns. Johnson received a fine and so did Sunak something that…

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All three charts are from the latest Redfield & Wilson poll which was published yesterday. There are many, including me, who regard polling like this as more indicative of the current political mood in the country than voting intention surveys. Mike Smithson

There is nothing like an energy crisis with predicted soaring costs that cause politicians to look at alternative sources which in the past have been a opposed. It is my view one of the daftest decisions made by the Tories was to impose the effective ban on onshore wind in 2015. That is now being revisited and the party is divided into 2 camps – those who believe that they should continue to be opposed and those looking to expand…

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