It all depends on how many CON losses All of the discussion after the Chester by-election about whether LAB can get a majority is irrelevant to whether SKS moves into Number 10. The big issue is the Tory seat total. Sunak or his successor will have to relinquish power if his party loses enough seats so that they don’t have an effective majority taking into account, of course, a possible arrangement with the DUP. Their problem is that the Tories…
I would like to bet on England but even after yesterday’s match, I remain unconvinced. Alas if they do beat France next weekend the odds will be a whole lot tighter than they are at the moment. Mike Smithson
Good Lord, the optics from the Tory government are awful, they really are, every time I have doubts about Labour winning an outright majority at the next election then some chump like Zahawi comes out with nonsense like this. I note with interest that the Tory client vote weren’t asked to accept a huge real terms cut to their state pensions. TSE
I was born a few weeks before the Winter of Discontent starred, I fear I’m going to fully experience a new Winter of Discontent this year in fact this is shaping up to be a de facto General Strike and we’ve not had one of those in nearly a century. What makes this period of industrial strife feel different is the sheer number of professions on strike, including the truly best of society, such as nurses and lawyers, without who…
After the result in Chester Peter Kellner published a piece which said In all fifteen “big swing” by-elections between 1958 and 2012, the difference between the implied national lead and what actually happened was at least 12 percentage points, and after all but three of the by-elections the drop was more than twenty points. For example, ten years ago, Labour gained Corby on a similar swing to this year’s two comparable by-elections, Wakefield and Chester. But in Corby, Labour’s baseline…
I think the betting markets have got this right and that LAB is in with a very good chance of winning most seats at the next general election but at the moment an overall majority.is rated as an evens chance. Ever since the complete collapse of the party in Scotland at the 2015 General Election what is now Starmer’s party has always been in a very difficult position. it will be recalled that at the 2010 general election LAB took…
What is dominating US politics at the moment is the runoff election on Tuesday between the final two contenders in the Georgia Senate race. This is happening because of a Georgia state law that requires a candidate in an election to secure more than 50% of the vote something which did not happen in the midterms on November 8th. In that situation then the top 2 in the ballot go forward to a runoff election. A victory for Warnock would…