But Scotland remains a massive problem for LAB The chart shows how things have moved in the past 12-months in the next general election betting market. As can be seen LAB has moved up for a 16% chance to a 51% chance now while the Tories have moved from 35% to 11%. I for one remain less than convinced about LAB for one reason and that is Scotland. This week’s Ipsos Scotland-only poll had SNP 51%, LAB 25%, CON 13%…
The above dataset is from the latest YouGov poll which as you can see gives LAB a 24% lead over the Tories which is one of the highest of recent surveys. An interesting set of figures is the second grouping which does not exclude those not having a party choice. This represents just under a third of the total CON vote from the last election and my guess is that a significant part of this will actually go back on…
Surely it’s not because he thinks it will help him! There is a big argument going on in the Democratic party about the sequencing of primaries for the 2024 White House race. Above is a table of what happened in the first four primaries last time and how Biden struggled in the first 3 but it all came good for him in South Carolina. Now he wants 2024 primaries to start with South Carolina . This looks like special pleading…
Will it be Biden v Trump once again? The completion of the mid-term elections, as we saw yesterday with the runoff in Georgia, has usually marked the focus on the next presidential election which is due in November 2024. As can be seen by the opening polling above Biden and Trump are the favourites for their parties – the big question is whether Biden and Trump will be the nominees and we won’t get an inkling of that for at…
Yet another Trump campaign fails What is remarkable about this result is that a month ago the Republicans won every statewide election in Georgia. The final result here is very close but that was to be expected. At some stage the Republicans will work out a way of dealing with Trump who continues to have a massive influence over the party and who gets nominated for key races. You would have thought that each defeat would be another nail in…
If you thought that the US mid-term elections were all done and dusted 4 weeks ago on November 8th then the fact that there is voting today in the state of Georgia might come as a surprise. In what is unique amongst the 50 states that make up the US Georgia has a law that a winning candidate has to secure more than 50% of the vote and that, by a fraction, did not happen in the first round of…
So much of the current electoral analysis is based on the premise that the battle will just be LAB vs CON. This is part, but only a part of the story, because to stay in power the Tories have to ensure that they keep their seat losses down to 46 and they will be fighting to defend in three main areas. Firstly there is Scotland where the Tories will be defending 6 seats and where their opponent will be the…