politicalbetting.com

One of the moderately busy political betting markets at the moment is on who will win the Republican nomination for the 2024 White House Race. Currently ex-President Donald Trump tops of polls and also the betting where he’s rated as a 30% chance. I think those being tempted have got this one wrong especially as we know that the formal nomination and likely betting payout will not be until August 2024. There’s a lot of political campaigning and other issues…

Read More Read More

Across 1 Recollecting a time of lasting economic difficulty (11)  7 Note heard from a distance (3)  9 President to cling on after losing a territory (9)  10 To get rid of a nominal tax (5) 11 The Spanish had his ear as EU President (7) 12 Emperor and a King attending buffet in Number Ten (7) 13 Vice President finally interrupts vacation and returns (5)  15 Felt, for instance, a rat (9) 17 Clinton was one politician every journalist…

Read More Read More

The 19th Christmas Day on PB

I have long held the view that Labour’s chances of ever securing another Commons majority were completely smashed at the 2015 General Election when they saw their position in Scotland totally obliterated. They went into that election defending 41 of the 59 Scottish seats. They ended with a single MP north of the border and things haven’t really changed since. So the polling trend in Scotland as seen in the Wikipedia table above is fairly encouraging for Starmer and his…

Read More Read More

Why we should be skeptical of the LAB leads? The above chart is based on detailed data of the GE2019 CON vote from the latest PeoplePolling survey. A big thing that I would worry about if I was a LAB strategist is the relatively small amount of the Tory vote last time that is now voting for Starmer’s party. A big driver of the don’t know/won’t vote segment could easily fall back in an election campaign. Indeed for this reason…

Read More Read More

This year will go down as one which has seen more changes at Number ten Downing Street than just about anybody can remember. This has prompted the Manchester-based pollster Omnisis to include a question that I’ve never seen before – “Who has been the best PM of the year”? This was the outcome: Our inaugural PM Of The Year decided by the voting public. It’s a strong showing for Boris (28%), less so Truss (1%), & Rishi (19%) came in…

Read More Read More

But at the moment there is no vacancy I have got a feeling based on absolutely nothing that the Tory leadership will come up again before the general election. Somehow I don’t see Sunak hacking it and I have been less than impressed by his performances at PMQs. Big problem he has is that his only being an MP for about 7 years and sometimes this shows. What Sunak that failed to do so far is get the polls turning…

Read More Read More

Holyrood has been considering ca. 150 amendments to the Gender Recognition Reform Bill. All the amendments must be considered and voted on in one day because the Scottish government insists the Bill be enacted before Xmas. There are many issues arising with this Bill but one – which has nothing to do with people with gender dysphoria – is worth highlighting. It is this: should men convicted of sexual offences against women, girls or children be allowed to take advantage…

Read More Read More