Kate Forbes moves to SNP leadership favourite
This was her Tweet and video announcing her move. Mike Smithson
How first past the post helped the SNP at GE2019
Did Nicola know the SNP position was built on sand? If ever there was an argument against the first past the post voting system then the outcome in Scotland at the last election makes a great case. The chart shows the proportion of the Scottish vote that each of the parties who won MPs had and compares it with the percentage of Scottish MPs that the party achieved. LAB’s 18.6% Scottish vote produced just 1.7% of the seats. The SNP…
One in four support compulsory voting
Electorally, I cannot think of anything more ghastly than being compelled to vote, any politician or party that proposes compulsory voting will not receive my vote. If such a policy did become law the primary consequence would be an increase in the number of ballot papers with phallus shaped drawings on them. TSE
Why the next election might not be a 1997 redux
I’ve been clear for a while that I’m not convinced a Labour majority is likely at the next election, simply because of the toxic legacy Jeremy Corbyn bequeathed Sir Keir Starmer and the electoral geography being poorer for Labour at the next election than in 1997. The other nagging doubt is about Sir Keir Starmer, longstanding readers of PB know that leader ratings that Ipsos produce are often a better predictors of general election outcomes than voting intention polls. Starmer…
Sunak’s doing better than Truss – but that’s not saying much
It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves how badly the Tory party was performing when Truss was prime minister. The Wikipedia chart above shows the national opinion polls for her final few weeks when there were more LAB leads in the 30s than in the 20s. Four months into Sunak’s leadership we don’t see gaps in the 30s anymore. Generally, LAB leads are now in the low 20s with the odd poll going into the teens. Whilst the current polling position…
Trump becomes a clearer favourite for the GOP WH2024 nomination
Could he face Biden once again? Although the October 2024 election is more than 20 months away a lot is going on on as potential protagonists seek to establish their position. Joe Biden is said to want to carry on even though he would be in his late 80s if he was to serve a full second term. The latest reports are that he is trying to hire someone to manage his 2024 campaign but has struggled to find someone….
First post-Sturgeon IndyRef poll sees no change
No remains ahead – but only just
Huge blow for the SNP in new Scottish YouGov poll
SNP slide to 29% A LAB recovery in Scotland makes a general election majority much more likely. LAB is on 27% in this poll hard on the heels of what was Sturgeon’s party. Clearly, things could change for the SNP once the leadership is settled but it is apparent that a fair bit of its previous Scottish support was down to its now-outgoing leader. Mike Smithson