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It is perhaps worth reminding ourselves how badly the Tory party was performing when Truss was prime minister. The Wikipedia chart above shows the national opinion polls for her final few weeks when there were more LAB leads in the 30s than in the 20s. Four months into Sunak’s leadership we don’t see gaps in the 30s anymore. Generally, LAB leads are now in the low 20s with the odd poll going into the teens. Whilst the current polling position…

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Could he face Biden once again? Although the October 2024 election is more than 20 months away a lot is going on on as potential protagonists seek to establish their position. Joe Biden is said to want to carry on even though he would be in his late 80s if he was to serve a full second term. The latest reports are that he is trying to hire someone to manage his 2024 campaign but has struggled to find someone….

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No remains ahead – but only just

SNP slide to 29% A LAB recovery in Scotland makes a general election majority much more likely. LAB is on 27% in this poll hard on the heels of what was Sturgeon’s party. Clearly, things could change for the SNP once the leadership is settled but it is apparent that a fair bit of its previous Scottish support was down to its now-outgoing leader. Mike Smithson

Since the 2015 General Election the SNP has been Britain’s third party with a substantial number of MPs and in a position, should the election be tight, to determine which has power. On top of that of course it continues to hold power with the Greens in the Scottish Parliament. So although the main focus of activity in the coming leadership election will be on policies north of the border the chances are that it will continue to be in…

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One of the inevitable fallouts out from Nicola Sturgeon’s surprise resignation is that the SNP special conference next month might get delayed, The Guardian are reporting that Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation could prompt a major rethink around her plans to fight the next UK general election as a de facto referendum on independence, the Scottish National party’s leader in Westminster has suggested. After the shock announcement of the first minister’s departure on Wednesday, Stephen Flynn said the special conference due to be held…

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Before Nicola Sturgeon’s resignation yesterday’s big news was Sir Keir Starmer banning two time general election loser Jeremy Corbyn as standing as an official Labour candidate at the next general election. I think this is a smart move by Starmer as evidenced by the polling above, it is supported by the people (Tories, Lib Dems, and Leavers) who needs to win over to become Prime Minister. It shows the country that the Labour Party under Starmer has made a clean…

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