Your regular reminder that how you frame a question can impact the polling response. YouGov’s analysis is essential for poll watchers to remember and understand that wording of questions has a huge impact on the results. We are lucky to have the British Polling Council which means we get to see the full details of the polls unlike America. I cannot imagine what inspired YouGov to conduct this research. TSE
For the past few days I have been following closely this betting market to see if the big move on Northern Ireland by Sunak has had an impact on the way the next election is being perceived. As can be seen there has been a small move away from a LAB majority and this is in line with the two or three polls that have come out that have shown the Tories doing slightly better. Hopefully tonight we will see…
In the next Conservative leader betting Boris Johnson has now slipped back from the favourite slot following the latest moves in relation to what has become known as partygate. This is being driven by two things:the revival of focus on Sue Gray following her appointment by Keir Starmer and the coming report by the Privileges Committee on whether Johnson did tell what could be an untruth to Commons over his actions during that difficult period. Today’s front pages show there…
Today there has seen a lot of what appears to be confected outrage by many Conservatives over the decision by Keir Starmer to appoint Sue Gray as his chief of staff. It was Gray, the former senior civil servant who carried out the investigation following the reports of lockdown breaking by Boris Johnson. Whatever the merits of today’s attacks it does highlight a particular weakness on the part of the Tories in finding a way of undermining the Labour leadership….
This is one of those times when I recall the advice of the Tory polling advisor Lord Hayward. He always took the view that we need to wait 2 weeks before coming to a conclusion about whether a particular event has had an impact on public opinion. On the face of it the Sunak government has had a very good week and no doubt he will be approaching things with a good deal more confidence. His big move on Northern…
This is from the Wikipedia polling table for the weeks before his announcement on July 7th 2022. I think it is hard to assert that the Tories were only a “handful of points behind” but the party was doing better than it is at the moment. Mike Smithson
The LAB lead varies between 14% and 27% Hopefully today we will see the first GB voting poll following the events of Monday on the moves relating to the Northern Ireland protocol. Sunak has played a leading role here and has been getting a good press. This comes at a time when there appears to have been a slight narrowing in Labour’s lead as can be seen from the Wikipedia chart table above. My guess is that over the next…
What has become clear over the past couple of days is that Sunak appears to be doing very well – certainly much better than he was. A big question is whether this will be reflected in the polls and my guess is that we will see the Labour lead in one of two surveys slip quite sharply. As far as I can see the best betting opportunity is on who will win most seats at the next general election where…