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Spread markets moves mean that the Tories could come top in England

29/4/2004 Editor

The intriguing possibility of Labour winning the next General Election by a very small majority but with the Tories holding most seats in England is raised this morning by a further softening of the Labour position on the spread betting markets. The latest spreads are:- LAB 327-337 seats CON 243-253 LDs 52-57 Total seats in next House of Commons 646 Taking the mid-points in the spread a Labour total of 332 would give Tony Blair/Gordon Brown just nine more than…

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Why are women voters spurning Blair and Bush?

28/4/2004 Editor

A big gap is opening up on both sides of the Atlantic between men and women over their support for the incumbent political leaders. Both Bush and Blair are supported more by men than women and in recent months this trend has become more pronounced. A BBC report this week quoted Deborah Mattinson, Opinion Leader Research as saying that many older female voters were disillusioned with the political process and the Labour government in particular. “Back in 1997 it was…

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How Charles Kennedy could be replaced

27/4/2004 Editor

Sunday’s telephone call by Charles Kennedy to the David Frost TV programme to say that he was definitely staying as Lid Dem leader has sparked more activity on the betting markets. This was not the move of a man confident of his position. In all the talk on Charles Kennedy’s future the question always arises as to what circumstances would lead him to go. No one can envisage the LDs doing what the Tories did to IDS last autumn. The…

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Monday Call – April 26 2004

26/4/2004 Editor

Last week’s calls proved to be reasonably robust in spite of new polls in both the UK and US. Please note that next week’s Monday Call will not be published until Monday evening because of the UK public holiday. Could both Blair and Kennedy be going before the General Election? There’s continuing speculation over the future of both the Lib Dem and Labour leaders that is attracting coverage and could be the focus of most betting activity. Our LAY call…

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A hung Parliament or Labour majority of 114 – which pollster do YOU believe?

24/4/2004 Editor

Political gamblers seeking to call the next UK General Election are faced now with totally different pictures from the two opinion poll firms that were most accurate in predicting the 2001 General Election. On the one hand is YouGov that is suggesting a vote split that would lead to a hung Parliament with Labour 23 seats short of an overall majority. On the other there is ICM which is predicting a vote split that will lead to Michael Howard’s Tories…

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New speculation that Blair will stand down in the summer

23/4/2004 Editor

There’s speculation by Simon Carr in the Independent this morning that Tony Blair might be planning to step down in the summer – after his 10th anniversary as Labour leader. This date has been mentioned before and in December there was much talk of some deal being done with Gordon Brown at that famous reconciliation dinner hosted by John Prescott after Gordon Brown returned from maternity leave. It will be recalled that Brown returned to work with a series of…

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Why is Blair running scared of June 10?

22/4/2004 Editor

Given the core mathematics of the next UK General Election that make it so difficult for him to lose why is Tony Blair making such a big deal of the June 10 elections for the European Parliament? Why is he mortgaging his short-medium term political future with the commitment for the referendum on the Euro constitution? Sure June 10 2004 is not going to be a good day for Labour. The last time the Euro seats were fought, in 1999,…

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Is Bush really in trouble?

21/4/2004 Editor

After a week away on business in the US I’ve returned to the UK more convinced more than ever that the Bush-Kerry race in November is going to be very tight even though the latest batch of polls has Bush back on top. The Bush campaign is attacking Kerry’s policies such as threatened hikes in gasolene taxes. In contrast the Kerry campaign is focussing on the qualities of their candidate trying give to give positive reasons to vote. People are…

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