Polling Accuracy – Which firm did best?

Polling Accuracy – Which firm did best?

Populus sets out its case Opinion polls are critical tools for political gamblers and in recent weeks we’ve made a number of observations about their accuracy. In particular we have looked at what happened at the Euro Elections last month when surveys by YouGov, in the Telegraph, and Populus, in the Times, could be compared with real results. Two days before the Euro vote we noted that YouGov was putting its reputation on the line with its very high figure…

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Monday Call – July 19 2004 (NEXT POST THURSDAY)

Monday Call – July 19 2004 (NEXT POST THURSDAY)

Give a political bet as a present! If you’ve been celebrating or commiserating after Thursday’s by-elections you might be interested in a new gambling service where you can give political bets as presents. It’s all done online and you can give one to yourself. What’s promising is that the service, Flipem, does well thought out political bets and ran what we think was the only “size of majority” market on the Leicester South by-election, where we came across them. For…

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Could Welshman Howard be flying the England Flag?

Could Welshman Howard be flying the England Flag?

What about a market on which party will win England? Given the fact that the overall General Election markets are almost a foregone conclusion why not a market on which party will have most of England’s 529 MPs after the General Election? A crumb of comfort for Michael Howard is that the Lib Dems’ ability to take votes and seats off Labour puts this goal within sight. If the Lib Dems just do as well in the General Election as…

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When are voters going to stop punishing Labour for the war?

When are voters going to stop punishing Labour for the war?

What happens if they never come back? All the General Election betting markets have been reacting to the by-elections and the Butler report on the assumption that voters will automatically return to Labour. The spread-betting market, extraordinarily, thinks that all this means that Labour is going to get more Commons seats. But what happens if those who stopped supporting the party because of the war just never come back? The conventional theory is that they’ll return to stop the Tories….

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Smart punters should stick with Tony

Smart punters should stick with Tony

UPDATE NOON Ignore the post by-elections odds changes on Blair and Labour After Labour losing its parliamentary seat in Leicester South to the Liberal Democrats but holding Birmingham Hodge Hill with a majority in hundreds rather than thousands smart punters should stick with Tony Blair even though the response of the markets has been against him and Labour. The William Hill price on Blair going before the General Election is down to 5/4 and Labour’s odds have lengthened. We disagree…

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Labour now favourite in Hodge Hill

Labour now favourite in Hodge Hill

1pm UPDATE Six hours after the polls opened in the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester South by-elections the markets are moving a bit away from the Liberal Democrats. There is still very little money going on – just over £10,000 in total at both elections on Betfair – that it seems that supporters of none of the parties have much confidence. Of that total just £904 has been matched in Labour in Leicester and £696 in Birmingham. With so many…

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Lib Dems odds-on favourites in both seats

Lib Dems odds-on favourites in both seats

UPDATE NOON Will it be a day of despair for Labour? The Lib Dems go into polling day at the Birmingham Hodge Hill and Leicester South by-election as firm odds-on favourites. At time of posting it was 30/100 in Leicester and 4/5 in Birmingham – the latter price holding in spite of continued tricky coverage for the party over their candidate’s day job in the mobile phone masts industry. At noon the Lib Dem prices in both seats had eased…

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If Birmingham & Leicester vote according to the polls

If Birmingham & Leicester vote according to the polls

If electors in tomorrow’s two by-election vote in accordance with the latest national opinion polls then Labour will have huge victories in both Birmingham and Leicestereven though the party’s share nationally has dropped by ten per cent since the last General Election. According to the latest General Election projection produced for each Westminster seat by the City mathematician, Martin Baxter, these would be the results:- Birmingham Hodge Hill LAB 50.8%: CON 19.3%: LIB 11.1%: OTH 18.6% Leicester South LAB 43.4%:…

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