Can Blair play it both ways? What’s going to be the electoral impact of the Government plan not to oppose the Countryside Alliance if it seeks an injunction delaying the ban on hunting? Certainly the move is in line with the thinking of ministers when they tried to push the implementation to the other side of the General Election by seeking to insert a delaying clause. But seeking to do something in Parliament is completely different from what could be…
Will Charles Kennedy put a smile on Michael Howard’s face It’s said that Labour are going to campaign hard on the fact that if many of their supporters switch to the Lib Dems then the main beneficiary will be Michael Howard. This is a tough one for Labour to get over particuarly as Charles Kennedy’s party will be seen to be pressing the Tories hard in such seats as Michael Howard’s Folkestone and all their rhetoric will be about them…
How UKIP outspent Labour in the Euro Elections UKIP’s stunning performance in the Euro Elections on June 10 was on the back of having the budget to outspend both Labour and the Liberal Democrats according to new figures out today from the Electoral Commission. These show the following amounts were spent by each party on the campaign. Conservatives £3.13m UKIP £2.36m Labour £1.7m Lib Dems £1.19m Greens £404k The campaign took UKIP into third place, ahead of the Lib Dems…
How will the party machines deal with the mid-campaign baby? We wonder whether Tony Blair is working into his election date decision the fact that a 05/05/05 poll would mean that Charles and Sarah Kennedy’s first child would be born right in the middle of the campaign. And with the Tories relatively static at their 2001 vote levels anything that is good for the Lib Dems is likely to be bad for Labour. The big dynamic at the coming election…
If you want to bet on Labour – hurry before prices move Labour are back to 40% with ICM for the first time since the notorious Andrew Gilligan interview on the Today programme in May 2003 according to the December ICM survey in the Guardian today. The shares are:- CON 31%(+1), LAB 40%(+2), LD 21%(-1). This will be disappointing news for both the Tories and the Liberal Democrats who had both, perhaps, been hoping for a boost from the David…
How the Indy described a 6% drop as “standing still” The December poll by Communicate Research for the Independent on Sunday showed a huge change since November when the pollster was reporting that Labour was back to its 2001 General Election level of 42%. The figures are:- LAB 39 (-3): CON 34 (+3) LD 19 (-1) But the most remarkable feature of the poll was how it has been covered by John Rentoul in the paper. His story appears under…
What will be the impact of “others”? The macro polling trend of 2004 has been the emergence of “others” as a serious electoral force that looks set to have a big impact on the General Election outcome. This is how the main pollsters are showing others in their latest surveys compared with those in January 2004. YouGov – Main three parties 88% (-6%) Others 12% (+6%) Populus – Main three parties 90% (-3%) Others 10% (+3%) ICM – Main three…
The main two parties remain unchanged in the Decvember YouGov poll which is out today a week earlier than usual. The only move is a small reduction for the Lib Dems. The figures are CON 32(nc), LAB 35 (nc), LD 21 (-2) OTH 12 (+2). The full details of the poll are not yet available but it will be interesting to find out how UKIP is doing because YouGov traditionally have them at a higher figure. Throughout 2004 the Labour…