Why pollsters ask how you voted last time?

Why pollsters ask how you voted last time?

Do Communicate Research polls overstate Labour? Yesterday’s Communicate Research poll in the Independent on Sunday suggesting that Labour is doing even better than at the 2001 General Election has provoked a lot of debate on how the pollster carries out its surveys. For ever since the firm began polling for the paper we’ve raised questions about the CR methodology which we believe overstates Labour and understates the the Tories and Lib Dems. A major challenge for telephone pollsters is finding…

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FREE MONEY….FREE MONEY…FREE MONEY

FREE MONEY….FREE MONEY…FREE MONEY

On the SkyBet “will there be a hung parliament” market the odds on such an outcome not happening are 1/6. Meanwhile on Betfair’s “no overall majority” market the odds against this being the result are 8.2/1. Unless my maths are completely out you can be a sure winner if you bet on both. (Thanks to one of our posters to pointing this out) Mike Smithson

Will the Labour vote hold where it does not matter?

Will the Labour vote hold where it does not matter?

Could winning the popular vote be Michael Howard’s consolation prize? If the poll trends stay where they are at the moment then it is possible that the post-election political environment will be dominated by whether Labour supporters turnout in the 450-500 seats where their vote won’t make a difference. Quite simply if enough Labour supporters stay away from the polls in these seats then the party could be second to the Tories in terms of overall votes even though it…

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Communicate Research puts Labour lead at 12%

Communicate Research puts Labour lead at 12%

UPDATED Sunday 8am Is Tony Blair really heading for a 174 seat majority? Today’s Independent on Sunday survey, conducted by Communicate Research, puts Labour at a level that is higher than it achieved in the 2001 landslide and gives the party a lead of 12% over the Conservatives that would on the Martin Baxter calculation produce a majority of 174. With just five weeks to go before a May 5 election these are sensational figures but somewhat surprisingly the IoS…

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Punters unmoved by the Flight case

Punters unmoved by the Flight case

Gamblers keep their money firmly in their pockets In spite of all the headlines and media coverage reaction on the betting markets to Howard Flight’s unguarded comments and his subsequent sacking the reaction of political gamblers has been very limited. Whatever else the affair has produced it has certainly not led to punters rushing to risk their cash by backing Labour or betting against the Tories. The most senstive barometers are the Commons seat spread-betting markets where punters buy or…

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Politicalbetting’s busiest day

Politicalbetting’s busiest day

With the possible exception of the night of the US Presidential Election in November when we were recording usage in a different way this has been the site’s busiest day ever. We are tops for unique users, page views and overall hits. Thank you Howard Flight, thanks to all those who have made contributions and thank you to everybody for who has visited us. I am especially grateful to all those making comments who have kept within the ethos of…

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The Flight sacking: who wins – who loses?

The Flight sacking: who wins – who loses?

The secret comments by Howard Flight revealed in the Times this morning and his subsequent removal as Tory candidate at Arundel at the election have made for a lively Good Friday. It was good to see Labour moving quickly with their hastily arranged press conference providing John Reid, Ruth Kelly and Alan Milburn the opportunity to get election campaign onto the territory that Labour wants – the danger of Tory spending cuts. It was also good to see Michael Howard’s…

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Labour’s YouGov lead down 4% in a week

Labour’s YouGov lead down 4% in a week

Another poll shows its getting very close Today’s YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph is in line with other recent polls and shows that the gap between the main parties is narrowing. The shares with comparisons from the Sunday Times YG poll five days ago are:- CON 34(+2): LAB 35(-2): LDEM 22 (-1). Last weekend’s YG poll in the Sunday Times was taken in the immediate aftermath of Gordon Brown’s budget while the big political issue during this survey was…

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