Put June 25th in your diary for the PB.C party

Put June 25th in your diary for the PB.C party

Put faces to the names at the gloating-free get-together Whenever in the past few months the idea of a post-election party has been raised my main concern has been that it could turn into an occasion for gloating and that only those supporting the winner would feel comfortable being there. Well the great thing about Election 2005 is that nobody got quite what they wanted so there’s been no gloating. Labour, as predicted, got back with a reasonable majority but…

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Our competitions – deciding the winners

Our competitions – deciding the winners

At last the Politicalbetting forecasters of 2005 are… In my introduction on May 2 to our General Election Competition I took the precaution of stating..” My rulings, however unreasonable, on all matters relating to this competition are final. I am right even when I am wrong. There are two issues which could affect the result. Was Labour’s majority 66 or 67 seats (because of the South Staffordshire situation) and how do we handle the rounding on the vote shares. A…

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Back Balls as a good value way of backing Brown

Back Balls as a good value way of backing Brown

Prepare for an early promotion for the former advisor Before Christmas we were saying that that the 5/1 then available against David Blunkett returning to the cabinet during 2005 was a great value way of betting on Labour to be top party. That proved to be a profitable punt. Now a similar bet is available on who will be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer. For if Gordon Brown, now just 2/9 to become next Labour leader, does make it…

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Play fantasy 2009 General Election

Play fantasy 2009 General Election

Martin Baxter introduces his new calculator The former Cambridge and now city financial mathematician, Martin Baxter, has produced a new version of his famous predictor which allows the user to input suggested party shares and at the click of a mouse button produce a projected new House of Commons. For years this has been a great tool for all who like speculating about what is going to happen and it is great that Martin has got round to producing the…

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How long will Tony Blair stay?

How long will Tony Blair stay?

After three victories and they call him a vote loser! Whatever your political allegiances it is hard not to feel a touch of sympathy for Tony Blair. After delivering his party’s third successive General Election victory the first thing he has to face when meeting his MPs again is dissent and calls for him to step down quickly. To have pulled of this triumph and to have seen off his fourth Tory leader is an incredible achievement – particularly against…

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What happened to the General Election high rollers?

What happened to the General Election high rollers?

The biggest winners were the bookies – surprise, surprise In the run up to polling day we reported on a number of really big bets and it is a good reminder of the dangers of gambling to look at what happened to them. DOWN £36,000 was the £2,000 bet on a Labour majority of more that 84 seats placed on the Tuesday before polling DOWN £15,000 was the £3,000 a seat on the Liberal Democrats placed on April 11 with…

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Good news for those with withdrawal symptoms

Good news for those with withdrawal symptoms

Spread markets open on the 2009 race Although it’s less than a week since the last one the first spread betting market on the next General Election has now been opened an early prices indicate that Labour will be returned with a majority of about 20. The opening spreads from Spreadfair are LAB 325-335: CON 226-232: LD 54-60 . The best prices on the conventional markets are LAB 4/7: CON 7/4: LD 80/1. From a pure financial perspective the spreads…

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How the pollsters dealt with their final polls

How the pollsters dealt with their final polls

ICM’s raw data had Labour nearly 20% ahead An extraordinary insight into the challenge that pollsters have in finding representative samples is revealed in the detailed data for the final surveys which is just being made available. We all know now that in terms of the popular vote in Great Britain Labour beat the Conservatives by 36.2% to 33.2% – or about eleven Labour voters for each ten Conservative ones. But base data for the final surveys ICM and Populus…

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