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Are Kennedy’s supporters reluctant to admit it? For several years ICM has been adjusting its published polling figures to deal with voters who are deemed “too shy” to admit their allegiance in a polling interview. This was introduced, initally, to deal with Conservative supporters who, it was thought, were reluctant to say so and, as a result, were distorting poll figures. Over the past year or so the formula that ICM and Populus use, based on taking a proportion of…

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Markets shaken by Channel 4’s publication of Iraq war advice Sharp price moves this evening on one of the main spread markets have seen a two seat drop in Labour’s predicted majority. With only IG Index having reacted so far the latest BALANCE OF MONEY prediction shows Labour down to 78 seats. If the other bookies follow IG then this will drop to 74 seats. This is the first downward shift in Labour’s position since the opening of the campaign….

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Politicalbetting’s Icarus finds out about the disputed votes When the Birmingham vote fraud case broke on the day that but for the Pope’s death Tony Blair would have called the General Election the view of many on the site was that it would have little impact beyond the city itself. But with the Times and other parts of the media continuing to focus on the new postal voting arrangements it is clear that this will not go away. Meanwhile, Richard…

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With the Tories now down to 190-195 region on the main spread markets of Spreadfair, IG Index, and Sporting Index there have been one or two signs that market sentiment has changed. Sporting Index reported a £3,000 a seat buy bet on Michael Howard’s party and IG yesterday told me that a senior figure in the party had bought at the £1,000 level on the market we have been tipping – the number of seat changing hands outside Scotland. This…

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Labour price tightens to 1/25

The Labour progress continues UK vote shares: LAB 37.9 (+0.5): CON 33.6 (-0.05) : LD 21.65 (+0.15 ) Election Outcome LAB majority 80 seats (n/c) Due to unforeseen circumstances there have been no updates and I have had little chance to monitor the spam filter. Apologies to those who have had comments held up or deleted accidently. The gambling markets have continue the trend of recent days although the Labour seat spreads have not moved enough to increase the projected…

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Some reminders of the latest polling “form” The last time that an NOP poll was tested against real results was just six months ago at the by-election in Hartlepool – the town where they elected a “monkey” (above) as Mayor. When their poll came out showing a 33% Labour lead I dismissed it as “wildly over-stated” and came under a lot of criticism here. Come polling day the actual Labour lead was 7% so the survey was a massive 26%…

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As predicted by Politicalbetting on October 20th 2004 Michael Howard is going into the final phase of the campaign urging electors to “send a message” to Tony Blair. In interviews and public comments over the past couple of days the Tory leader is making the “send a message” theme the hallmark of his final phase rhetoric. Although he is not actually conceding defeat the aim seems to be to get over without saying as much that Tony Blair will win…

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