An evening to see the faces behind the names Everything is now set for the Politicalbetting Post-General Election Party which takes place at a pub in Central London next Saturday night. Thanks to the generous sponsorship from IG Index and one or two other people who have made donations we have enough in the budget to pay for the room hire and the the food. Hopefully there will be enough left over for at least one free drink for every…
Cameron RED: Clarke YELLOW: Fox GREEN: Lansley PINK: Rifkind BLACK How the betting has changed on the main contenders The above chart shows the changing best betting prices available on the main challengers to David Davis in the Tory leadership race. The start date is May 6th – the day after the General Election when Michael Howard surprised everybody by announcing that he would be stepping down. Since then there has been the wrangle on how his successor should be…
The David Davis price tightens to 4/5 Any idea that the new Tory leadership election rules could impact on the Shadow Home Secretary’s so far undeclared canditure for the Tories leadership have been rejected by gamblers who have pushed his price down even further. The latest odds put Davis in the range of 4/6 to 4/5 and the signs are that this will get tighter. The fact that Tory MPs will get the final say, unilike with IDS last time,…
But will anybody risk money by going against the Lib Dems The betting exchange, Betfair, have just opened a maket on which party will win the Cheadle by-election. Unlike a conventional bookmaker Betfair is an exchange and you can only place a bet a if another punter is prepared to lay it. Betfair itself simply provides the facility. At the time of this posting there was nobody on this market offering odds on the Lib Dems. This shoulds change but…
Could the former postman and union boss make it if Brown falters? While all the focus has been on the Tory leadership race there’s been a quiet revolution taking place in the “who’ll replace Blair” betting. Because Gordon Brown is seen as such a certainty there’s been no serious examination about what would happen if, for whatever reason, the Chancellor is unable to make it to the top job. Who is next in line? Although there’s been very little betting…
Take the 4/1 on them still being there on January 1 2008 We normally don’t like very long-term bets because it usually involves you locking up your cash for years. Thus there is simply no point taking the 1/4 or 1/5 on Gordon Brown because your return is so small for the time you will be without your cash and there is always the possibility that what appears to be a near-certainty today might look different two years on. There…
Just a reminder that everybody who uses the site is welcome at the Politcalbetting post-General Election party in London on Saturday June 25th. Bookvalue – also known as Philip – is handling the organisation. People of all political allegiances are welcome and it does not matter whether or not you join in the site’s discussion forums. We are being helped by a generous contribution from IG Index which should cover some of the core costs at a venue in Central…
What was behind the party’s late recovery? It’s worth looking back at the dynamic of what happened on May 5th so that we are better able to call future elections and one element that has not really been discussed was the recovery of UKIP within the final week or so. For just seven weeks before election day the pollster that was to prove to be the most accurate, NOP, produced a survey showing that just one single person in a…