Is compulsory voting Blair’s secret weapon?

Is compulsory voting Blair’s secret weapon?

Will imposing fines on non-voters ensure that Labour stays in power? To Labour officials the party’s supporters must be exasperating. For there’s a big gap between the number who say they support the party and those that actually vote. If some means of boosting turnout can be found, they believe, then Labour’s grip on power could be even stronger than it is at the moment. Labour’s Plan A was to make voting easier. Making postal voting available to everybody seemed…

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Will it be third time lucky for David Davis?

Will it be third time lucky for David Davis?

2001 2003 2005? Three faces of the man punters think will take on Gordon Brown Yesterday’s attack by David Davis in the Daily Telegraph on multiculturalism was a foretaste of what we can expect in the coming weeks as leading contenders for the Tory leadership try to position themselves as the right person to stave off a fourth successive General Election defeat. The Shadow Home Secretary, David Davis, has been here before. In the 2001 contest he came joint bottom…

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Just when will he step down?

Just when will he step down?

Could the handover take place the day after polling day? For two and a half months we have been saying repeatedly that Tony Blair will go on as Prime Minister for much much longer than received wisdom had it and those that followed our advice in mid-May are sitting on some promising bets. Ten days after the election we said “The markets think he’s going in 18 months – don’t believe it”. The latest speculation following the comments by his…

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Baxter prediction: Labour majority 118

Baxter prediction: Labour majority 118

But why are the pollsters being less transparent? In what we think is Martin Baxter’s first prediction for the next General Election a big increase in Labour seats is projected from the calculation which involves applying the average swing in the latest polls to what happened on May 5th and applying them on a uniform national basis in each seat. The Baxter calculator is one of the great tools for those who try to forecast and bet on elections but…

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Why my money is staying on Cameron

Why my money is staying on Cameron

Is the old Etonian the “natural successor to Blair”? For somebody who only came into parliament four years ago David Cameron has moved very quickly and it says a lot about his political and media skills that he has established himself as the main challenger to David Davis. When people discuss Cameron they focus on his old school and hardly anybody comments on his “day job” before 2001 as the PR boss for Britain’s biggest ITV company. This guy is…

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Will the Tory race be affected by IDS’s political ping pong?

Will the Tory race be affected by IDS’s political ping pong?

Ousted leader: “threatening to leave the party” With the Tories gearing themselves up for an intense autumn when it will be decided whether Michael Howard’s successor should be elected by a ballot of the party membership the man ousted by the parliamentary party in October 2003, Ian Duncan Smith, is reported to be threatening to resign his membership. According to the Sunday Telegraph this morning IDS has “told colleagues that he will take the extraordinary step if two people he…

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Are the Tories heading for a fourth successive defeat?

Are the Tories heading for a fourth successive defeat?

What happens if the new leader makes no difference? Although the poll moves away from the Tories have not been as great as after previous General Elections there’ve been few crumbs of comfort in the few surveys that have been carried out. We have hardly mentioned the post-May 5th polls on the site because this close to the election the question of what respondents might do in four years time is not very relevant. Also the Olympic 2012 decision and…

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Will Hilary move from FLOTUS to PROTUS*?

Will Hilary move from FLOTUS to PROTUS*?

Is it going to be Hilary vs Rudolf or Hilary vs John Even though George Bush’s second term only began on January 20th would-be seekers after their parties’ nominations are already talking with potential backers and putting visits to New Hampshire into their diaries in preparation for the 2008 race. And because Bush cannot stand again there’ll will be fierce fights amongst both the Democrats and the Republicans to get the precious nominations. If the UK betting markets have got…

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