Meet the man who decided the last Tory leadership contest

Meet the man who decided the last Tory leadership contest

Does David Davis regret his sacrifice in October 2003? While Tories deliberate on whether MPs or party members should have the final say over the leadership it is worth recalling that 23 months ago the decision, for all intents and purposes, was made by just one man, the current favourite, David Davis. For it was his withdrawal from the race on October 29th, just 90 minutes after IDS had been ousted, that led to the former Home Secretary getting the…

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Sunday press roundup, 4th September 2005

Sunday press roundup, 4th September 2005

Press pundits précised The main British political stories today centre, as usual, on the election of the next Conservative leader. The Sunday Telegraph reports that its poll of constituency chairmen showed a 44% vote against the proposed change to the party’s constitution which would give MPs the final say on the leadership. With the proposal requiring a two-thirds majority at the National Convention on 27th September, this would be enough to block it. The Sunday Times speculates that the compromise…

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Saturday markets update, 3rd September 2005

Saturday markets update, 3rd September 2005

New, moving and interesting markets this week The biggest story in British politics over the last few days has been the entry of Kenneth Clarke into the Conservative leadership election. Money in the betting markets has piled on the former Chancellor and pushed him into the second favourite position at 3.1/1, overtaking Shadow Education Secretary David Cameron (6.8/1) but continuing to trail the favourite, Shadow Home Secretary David Davis (0.92/1). All other contenders have slipped to 39/1 and longer. On…

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The Livingston by-election

The Livingston by-election

Labour should be strong enough in Cook’s old seat Recent reports have forecast that the by-election to fill the Livingston seat of the late Robin Cook will take place on 29th September. Betting is not available yet, but a few bookies normally run by-election markets once the date is formally set. The two main candidates (pictured to the right) will be Labour’s Jim Devine – previously Robin Cook’s election agent – and Angela Constance of the SNP, who fought the…

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London 2008: the runners

London 2008: the runners

Will it be Ken Livingstone’s turn again? I think the first comment I ever posted on this site concerned the London mayoral election last year. The winner was the hot favourite Ken Livingstone, but Mike Smithson was proved right in his prediction that Steve Norris would close the gap in the betting odds and polls as the campaign went on. Some bets on the next-but-one election – in 2012 – are already available under the umbrella of William Hill‘s Olympic-themed…

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Will we have three new faces next time?

Will we have three new faces next time?

It could be all change at the next election The focus of British political gamblers over the months since the General Election has been on the next Conservative leader. There is a market on the next Labour leader (and the deputy too), along with betting on when Tony Blair will resign as Prime Minister and Labour leader. There is no market as yet on the Liberal Democrat leadership, where there are two interesting questions: when will Charles Kennedy go, and…

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Has he changed his mind too late?

Has he changed his mind too late?

Will Clarke’s switch on the euro come across as common sense or opportunism? In the Conservative leadership race, the chances of Kenneth Clarke seem to have been rescued from a badly flagging position since Clarke – the only really prominent Conservative to have supported the euro – admitted that he now saw the single currency as “a failure”. Less than two weeks ago, Clarke’s campaign was being deserted by former supporters such as Tony Baldry, with only John Bercow and…

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Bank holiday competition

Bank holiday competition

Win a prize that money cannot buy To occupy you over the bank holiday, another of politicalbetting.com’s occasional prediction competitions. It looks like the only prize on offer will be the admiring respect of your peers on the site. The rules Post your entry as a comment on this thread. Please don’t use this thread for anything other than entries – discussion of the questions can go on the thread below this one. Entries close at 11.59pm BST on Saturday…

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