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More spread markets open on the popular vote With four new polls in the papers this morning showing wildly different views of public opinion all the spread-betting firms are now offering markets on what the eventual vote shares will be on May 5th. Will it be the new internet pollsters that are calling this correctly or can you rely on the traditional phone interview polling? These spreads form the basis of our daily BALANCE of MONEY predictions which we publish…

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Few market moves as punters consider the impact of Rover Projected vote shares: LAB 36.25: CON 34.75: LS 21 Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 68 seats (nc) No new national polls to affect the markets today and there’s been no negative reaction for Labour on the demise of Rover, as might have been expected. The only move on the projected popular vote market has been a slight increase in the Lib Dem position. It seems that punters expect a falling…

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Has Blair given the Tories the weapon to get more votes out in the marginals? Probably the most revealing statistics to come out of the past week were in the list of postal voting applications in different seats and local authority areas published in yesterday’s Times. For they show the product of the “hidden” campaign that has been taking place over the past six months – the huge direct marketing effort in the marginal seats. Select voters have been bombarded…

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YouGov adds to Tory market depression Projected vote shares: LAB 36.25: CON 34.75: LS 20.75 Projected Election Outcome LAB majority 68 seats (+4) The two pollsters punters seem to take most notice of are ICM and YouGov so the fact that both have reported similar big leads for Labour has caused the markets to react strongly and the projected Labour majority has gone up a further four seats for the second day running. On the projected poll share market the…

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What are the implications for punters? A big investigation in the Times this morning shows a huge increase in postal voting applications from marginal seats and raises concerns about the role the party machines – and not just Labour – have played in the process. From the pure betting perspective this must make the current turnout markets even more attractive. The IG Index spread is just 60.75-61.75% while Spreadfair, have 60.4-61.3%. The best conventional bookie price of 6/5 for 63%…

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Polling agony for the Tories as even YouGov shows big Labour lead At the end of a fairly torrid week for the Tories the internet pollster, YouGov, in the Telegraph this morning is showing a Labour lead of 5% – up from level-pegging just a few days ago. The big beneficiary of a Tory fall of 3% has been the Lib Dems who are now at 22%. The headline figures are: LAB 38 (+2): CON 33 (-3): LD 22 (+2)…

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