Will Walter’s eviction depress Labour’s by-election turnout?

Will Walter’s eviction depress Labour’s by-election turnout?

How will tonight’s elections go? As well as the PR disaster at the Labour conference itself the forceful eviction of 82 year-old Walter Wolfgang came on the eve of the two by-elections where the party is defending pretty safe majorities in Scotland. Forcing the escapee from Nazi Germany from the conference hall and the constant repetition of the incident over the past 36 hours on television cannot have helped the Labour effort to get its vote out today in Livingston…

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Why my money’s on Ken

Why my money’s on Ken

How PB.C’s Tories swayed my betting In the immediate aftermath of the French refendum in May rejecting the EU constitution I put a big spread bet on Ken Clarke for the Tory leadership because it appeared that the issue that distanced him from the bulk of his party had been kicked into touch. No UK referendum meant that he was not going to be put on the spot in the run-up to a similar UK vote. From my non-Tory standpoint…

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The uncertainty continues for Davis and Brown

The uncertainty continues for Davis and Brown

… Does yesterday make the Gordon-David show a touch less likely? After the events of this week the one almost sure thing that you can predict about the next General Election is that Oxford University’s stranglehold on UK politics will be broken. For the first time since Stanley Baldwin in 1935 an election looks set to be won by someone who was educated at a University other than Oxford. The only exceptions in the past 70 years, Churchill and Major,…

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Sorry the site was down

Sorry the site was down

The heaviest traffic since the General Election hits our servers A big apology to all PB.C’s users for the problems getting through to the site from mid-afternoon today. In the immediate aftermath of Tony Blair’s speech and the Tory vote on the leadership rules trafffic soared dramatically on normal weekday levels and the servers could not cope. Today saw the site at its busiest since May 5th as an estimated 20,000 of you tried to access the discussion forums all…

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The ball’s back in Blair’s court

The ball’s back in Blair’s court

Labour’s ping-pong continues as the PM’s aides say Brown is being “presumptuous” On what will surely be the biggest day in British politics since the General Election Tony Blair is making his big conference speech in Brighton and the Tories will announce the result of their ballot on how Michael Howard’s replacement will be chosen. In the immediate aftermath of Gordon Brown’s speech yesterday all seemed clear – the Chancellor was giving the Prime Minster the accolades and was using…

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New Labour RENEWED – the winning formula for the 4th term?

New Labour RENEWED – the winning formula for the 4th term?

Huge moves in Brown’s price as markets react to the Chancellor’s speech Based on best betting prices the implied probability of Gordon Brown being next Labour leader touched more than 80% this morning as punters took stock of the Chancellor’s conference speech and news of his forthcoming Middle East trip. Brown’s unveiling of “New Labour renewed” will set the backcloth to the expected transition from Tony Blair and has clearly been designed to allow the Prime Minister to step aside…

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What are the chances of upsets in the Scottish by-elections?

What are the chances of upsets in the Scottish by-elections?

Will the Iraq situation affect voting in Robin Cook’s old seat? After seeing themselves safely home by holding the Hartlepool by-election in the same week as the Labour conference a year ago party officials have adopted the same tactic for the Livingston Westminster by-election and the one at Glasgow Cathcart for the Scottish Parliament. During conference weeks parties get much more broadcast coverage than usual and Labour officials clearly felt that this was extra insurance just in case there was…

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The Betting Markets move further to Davis?

The Betting Markets move further to Davis?

Tory leadership betting: RED Davis, BLACK Clarke, BLUE Cameron, GREEN Fox But what if the rule changes are rejected? With the Labour Conference, the Scottish by-elections and the announcement on Tuesday of whether the Howard changes to the Tory leadership rules have gone through it’s the biggest week in British politics since the General Election in May. For the Tory leadership our latest chart shows further a improvements in the implied probability of David Davis winning based on the latest…

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