Only nine days to go before the pay-out Whatever your personal view of the Tories or David Cameron we hope that all those who have been tempted to bet will have had a profitable leadership election. The changing implied probabilities Cameron based on best betting odds are illustrated in our chart. From a best price of 10/1 his price has tightened even further overnight to 0.03/1. After going strongly for him on July 3rd and then on August 1st I…
YouGov and pensions row fail to dampen markets Punters on the “which party will win most General Election seats” markets are taking a slightly more optimistic view of Labour’s chances in spite of the YouGov poll showing a 6% drop in the party’s lead and the ongoing row over pensions policy. PB.C’s weekly index is based on the best betting odds available on Labour and is presented in terms of implied probability of it securing most seats at the next…
Markets opens on the Lib Dem leadership It’s a sign, surely, of the position that the Lib Dems now have in British politics that a bookmaker considers them important enough to open a market on whether their leader will survive. The price is 1/3 that Charles Kennedy will still be in post at the General Election and 9/4 that he won’t. Given that we might be four years off a General Election there is no point in locking up your…
1 in 13 Labour supporters switch to the Tories The November YouGov poll in the Daily Telegraph reports a big cut in Labour’s lead and is the first significant polling movement since the Tories started to get a lot of media attention from their leadership contest. Until today the Cameron-Davis fight had not appeared to have had an impact on the General Election voting intention of the main pollsters. All eyes will now be on ICM, Populus and Mori to…
But survey shows he’d be 5 point behind Brown As a curtain-raiser for their Tory leadership debate today Sky News has commissioned YouGov to test different Tory-Labour leadership combinations. It’s headline conclusion is that the 39 year-old cyclist, David Cameron, is ahead of Tony Blair. In a form of polling that forces respondents to choose between two options without any regard for any other party these were the main splits:- Cameron-Blair 41-38 Davis-Blair 36-41 Cameron-Brown 38-43 Brown-Davis 46-32 We’ve said…
It’s 2/1 that there will be an air-strike within 18 months With Tony Blair renewing his tough comments on Iran there’s now a betting market from the US-focused Dublin betting exchange, Tradesports, on whether there will be US and/or Israeli air-strikes against Iran. There are three options and the opening prices are:- 9.1-14.8 that there will be an ” an overt Air Strike against Iran by 30 June 06″. 12.6-24.5 that there will be “an overt Air Strike against Iran…
Still not through the 33% ceiling Tucked away in the Guardian today is the November ICM poll showing CON 33(NC)LAB 38 (+2)LD. Given the high profile that the Tory leadership contest has had in the media this must be something of a disappointment to the party. The 33% share is what the party achieved in the General Election itself and is just one point higher than what ICM recorded in their final pre-May 5th survey. In one way it might…
Has the PM turned the corner after the Terror Bill defeat? The collective view of people prepared to risk their money predicting political outcomes is that Tony Blair has a 22.7% chance of completing the majority of a normal third term as Prime Minister. Using implied probabilities based on historical and current betting prices we are making a regular feature of how punters are rating the key political issues. Our first – the betting market assessment of Labour winning most…