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Dunfermline – could Cameron win the aftermath?

4/2/2006 Editor

Will even a modest performance be spun as a “victory”? With hundreds of activists from the four main parties heading to Dunfermline this weekend ahead of Thursday’s Westminster by-election there can be no doubt, surely, that Labour is going to hang on. The party got 20,111 last May to the Lib Dems’ 8,549, the SNP’s 8,026 and just 4,376 votes for the Tories. This contest has got a “Labour with a substantially reduced majority on a low turnout” written all…

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Punters think it’s down to Campbell and Huhne

3/2/2006 Editor

YouGov could settle it within a few days There’ve been big moves in the Lib Dem leadership betting following the claims by Camp Campbell that Chris Huhne had reneged on a deal not to stand and a confident performance by the ex-MEP on Question Time last night. The latest prices have Campbell out from 0.5/1 to 0.72/1 with Huhne in from 3/1 to less than 2/1. The backers have been moving further away from Simon Hughes who has drifted to…

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How long before the David & Gordon show?

2/2/2006 Editor

Brown’s price tightens after “hatred bill” defeats Whenever Tony Blair seems to be having a bad time of it punters flock to bet on Gordon Brown as his successor. For the main consideration in this market is not whether the Chancellor will make it to Number 10 but how quickly it will happen. Punters like to bet on something knowing it’s going to be resolved within a reasonable time-scale because the last thing they want is to lock their stake…

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Is Ming now a near certainty?

1/2/2006 Editor

Best price tightens to 0.49/1 There’s been a further swing to Menzies Campbell in the Lib Dem leadership betting overnight and the best you can now get is 0.49/1. With just a month until the result is known how good a bet is this? Do any of the other candidates stand a chance? The last full leadership poll of party members took place while Charles Kennedy was still leader and was published only a few hours before the resignation was…

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Mori poll gives boost to Tories and Lib Dems

31/1/2006 Editor

Cameron gets approval rating of nearly 2-1 The results are out of a massive poll involving face to face interviews with more than 2,000 people by MORI. The main party shares based on those “certain to vote” are CON 40% (+1): LAB 38%(-1): LD 17%(+2). The comparisons are with the Sun Mori poll eleven days ago. Asked how they saw David Cameron’s performance as Tory leader 31% were positive and 17% against. In an excellent commentary on the MORI site…

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Is Cameron’s success being built on women?

31/1/2006 Editor

But why are men still unconvinced? One of the main reasons why Tony Blair came to power in 1997 and was returned in 2001 and 2005 was his success with the female vote. From a situation where women were traditionally more Conservative than men the political gender balance was completely changed. But might that all be going back? For from the latest detailed polling data there are signs that the Tory recovery is coming from a huge change in female…

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Can Blair keep it going for another two years?

30/1/2006 Editor

Does Blunkett really know what’s going on? The comments by the twice sacked ex-cabinet minister, David Blunkett, that Tony Blair and Gordon Brown have reached “a new understanding” that will see a changeover at Number 10 within two years have set the Blair departure markets going. In a BBC interview Blunkett said; “My sense is that there is a new understanding – yes..And it is good because anybody with any ounce of understanding of politics knows that when Tony Blair…

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Why the 5% Lib Dem gap between ICM and YouGov?

29/1/2006 Editor

.. A tale of two polls and two polling methodologies A new poll by ICM for the Sunday Telegraph this morning should ease some of the jitters within the Lib Dems. After Friday’s YouGov survey putting their share down at 13% the ICM numbers out today are CON 37: LAB 36: LD 18. The only change on Tuesday’s Guardian ICM survey is a one point drop for the Lib Dems. The timing of the polls meant that all the interviewing…

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