What would be a good result for the Tories on May 4th? Traditionally, winning more than 40% of the vote nationwide has been regarded as the benchmark for a successful opposition party. However, that seems too high a hurdle now that the Lib Dems typically win 25% + of the vote in national elections, and an increasing share of the vote goes to a variety of minor parties. I would suggest that the Conservatives have to obtain at least 38%…
In spite of Tony’s problems few punters are rushing to back Brown Generally, whenever Tony Blair is in trouble, you see a spurt of betting on Gordon Brown in the Labour leadership market. The big disincentive of locking up money on the Chancellor is the thought that you might have to wait years for the leadership to be resolved and for you to see a return. But in the past there’s been a rush to back Brown whenever Blair has…
No rush to bet on an early departure The above chart shows the implied probability of Tony Blair surviving for another 21 months and is based on best betting prices. It shows that there has been just a small dip linked to the Education Bill but the market impact is nothing like what it was in the aftermath of last November’s terror bill defeat. Clearly having to rely on Tory support to get a main policy bill through its second…
What is it about the Chancellor that boosts Tory support? Further details from the March ICM poll in the Guardian show that while the Tories are three points behind Labour they would be running neck and neck if David Cameron was facing Gordon Brown. The main voting intention figures, covered in the previous thread, had CON 34: LAB 37: LD 21 and are the first numbers from ICM since Cameron won the leadership where the Tories are behind. But when…
Boost for Blair as MPs prepare to vote on Education Bill According to Channel 4 News the March ICM poll to be published tomorrow in the Guardian shows a big move back to Labour and has the party back in the lead for the first time since David Cameron became Tory leader. The top-line figures announced on the programme had with changes on last month: CON 34 (-3): LAB 37 (+3): LD 21 (nc). The last time Labour enjoyed a…
Will Cameron’s strategy hasten Blair’s departure time-table? Tomorrow’s Commons vote on the Government’s Education Bill is taking on a huge significance with commentators trying to assess the impact of almost almost every political development, whether linked to the Bill or not, on what will happen. Thus yesterday’s announcement of 800 British troops being withdrawn from Iraq is being seen as a move by Downing Street to keep the rebellion down. The latest sleaze allegations, that Labour solicited loans rather than…
For some reason the comments thread on today’s posting does not work. Let’s see if this one operates.
How to increase the yield and reduce the political damage In the row over the Labour party’s alleged “cash for honours†scandal nobody has raised the issue of the pricing levels involved. Is Tony Blair “selling†them too cheaply? This post is not about the rights and wrongs of handing out honours in return for large donations but whether the party has got its basic fundraising strategy right. For from the perspective of my day job as a professional big…