Never under-estimate the power of incumbency

Never under-estimate the power of incumbency

Betting on a leader’s survival is usually profitable As general rule the best option in the political “How long will they survive” markets is to bet that leaders will go on longer than current perceptions for that’s what they usually do. Politicians who become leaders of their parties are generally pretty tough and resilient. You don’t get to that rung on the ladder without those qualities and it is easy to underestimate them. The power of incumbency is very strong…

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Populus poll boost for Tony Blair

Populus poll boost for Tony Blair

Labour back into the lead & party supporters want him to stay This month’s poll from Populus in the Times, puts Labour back into the lead for the first time since January. Its shares are with comparisons on last month CON 34%(-1): LAB 36%(+1): LD 21%(+1) – so a two point fall-off in the Tory position has seen one point jumps for Labour and the Lib Dems. This is in line with other recent polls which have seen the Tory…

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Will Tony be wearing one of these?

Will Tony be wearing one of these?

Are there 45 MPs who will sign up for the Chancellor to be challenged? The rules governing Labour’s leadership election will give Tony Blair at least two votes when he finally decides to step down from the job or he’s forced out. The first will be as an MP who have a third of the influence in the electoral college. The second will be as an ordinary constituency member and he’ll have a possible third vote if he still belongs…

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Peter Cuthbertson’s guide to political spread-betting

Peter Cuthbertson’s guide to political spread-betting

A novice punter on out how it works I’ve enjoyed reading PB.C much longer than I’ve been placing bets on elections, so until a few months ago I was mystified by some of the phrases and odds given in the posts. When I made serious effort to find out what it all meant I was able to get a lot more from the posts and comments, so hopefully I can now return the favour to others. Rather than laboriously go…

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Will naming a date keep the Blair premiership alive?

Will naming a date keep the Blair premiership alive?

ICM has 42% saying he should go now With relations between Tony Blair and Gordon Brown said to have reached new lows an ICM poll in the Rupert Murdoch-owned News of the World has 42% saying that the Prime Minister should step down immediatly. A further 15% say he should “go within a year” and a further 13% want him out before the next General Election. Only 21% think that Tony Blair should stay on until after the General Election….

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Harry Hayfield: Can we forecast the General from the locals?

Harry Hayfield: Can we forecast the General from the locals?

How much are the local by-election results a pointer? It’s often been said that local by-elections only affect a maximum of 1,000 people at any one time (and even less than that if turnout is poor) and is only of any real use to the people who study local elections for national electoral implications. Well, do excuse me if I sound like a rather set in my way Victorian gentleman but “that view is arrant poppycock!”. Local by-elections give a…

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Andrea’s Italian General Election Commentary

Andrea’s Italian General Election Commentary

Will Berlusconi have more time to entertain Tony? Italian electoral law forbids the publishing of opinion polls up to a fortnight in advance of polling day, which has effect from last Saturday. This means that we can only speculate as to how events since then have affected the standing of the parties.’Parties will try to spin the figures of their own internal polling, but naturally only the positive ones. Thanks to a strong start of the campaign, Berlusconi managed to…

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Sean Fear’s local council election commentary

Sean Fear’s local council election commentary

WHAT OF THE LIBERAL DEMOCRATS? The modern Liberal revival began in local government, with the capture of Finchley in the late 1950s. Decade by decade, Liberal (and then Alliance) support on local councils grew steadily, until by the mid 1990s, the Liberal Democrats had 50 local councils under their control, and more local councillors than the Conservatives. Typically, Liberal Democrats gains came in areas of long-standing Conservative support (although there were exceptions like Liverpool, Tower Hamlets and Southwark). Recently, the…

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