.. YouGov has Labour 3% behind while ICM shows a 4% lead In much of the period leading up to the 2005 General Election the UK’s two major polling organisations were showing very different pictures of the way the public were thinking. Alas by polling day findings from the two firms almost converged and it was hard to draw a significant conclusion about their respective methodologies. Today a telephone survey by ICM in the SundayTelegraph has LAB 37: CON 33:…
Now just 3.2/1 that he’ll be gone by the end of June The “honours for loans” crisis in the immediate aftermath of the Education bill rebellion and the Tessa Jowell issues has caused a sharp move on the “When will Blair go?” betting markets. The above chart shows the implied probability of him leaving Downing Street in the period April-June on the Betfair betting exchange. For the first time, bookmakers William Hill reckon that Tony Blair is most likely to…
What would be a good result for the Tories on May 4th? Traditionally, winning more than 40% of the vote nationwide has been regarded as the benchmark for a successful opposition party. However, that seems too high a hurdle now that the Lib Dems typically win 25% + of the vote in national elections, and an increasing share of the vote goes to a variety of minor parties. I would suggest that the Conservatives have to obtain at least 38%…
In spite of Tony’s problems few punters are rushing to back Brown Generally, whenever Tony Blair is in trouble, you see a spurt of betting on Gordon Brown in the Labour leadership market. The big disincentive of locking up money on the Chancellor is the thought that you might have to wait years for the leadership to be resolved and for you to see a return. But in the past there’s been a rush to back Brown whenever Blair has…
No rush to bet on an early departure The above chart shows the implied probability of Tony Blair surviving for another 21 months and is based on best betting prices. It shows that there has been just a small dip linked to the Education Bill but the market impact is nothing like what it was in the aftermath of last November’s terror bill defeat. Clearly having to rely on Tory support to get a main policy bill through its second…
What is it about the Chancellor that boosts Tory support? Further details from the March ICM poll in the Guardian show that while the Tories are three points behind Labour they would be running neck and neck if David Cameron was facing Gordon Brown. The main voting intention figures, covered in the previous thread, had CON 34: LAB 37: LD 21 and are the first numbers from ICM since Cameron won the leadership where the Tories are behind. But when…
Boost for Blair as MPs prepare to vote on Education Bill According to Channel 4 News the March ICM poll to be published tomorrow in the Guardian shows a big move back to Labour and has the party back in the lead for the first time since David Cameron became Tory leader. The top-line figures announced on the programme had with changes on last month: CON 34 (-3): LAB 37 (+3): LD 21 (nc). The last time Labour enjoyed a…
Will Cameron’s strategy hasten Blair’s departure time-table? Tomorrow’s Commons vote on the Government’s Education Bill is taking on a huge significance with commentators trying to assess the impact of almost almost every political development, whether linked to the Bill or not, on what will happen. Thus yesterday’s announcement of 800 British troops being withdrawn from Iraq is being seen as a move by Downing Street to keep the rebellion down. The latest sleaze allegations, that Labour solicited loans rather than…